Blog: Weak Tropical Disturbance Today. Heat Tomorrow!


While we don’t have a large/imminent tropical system out in the Atlantic, we are carefully watching a tropical disturbance that is creeping towards the North Carolina coast.

Over the past couple of days the cluster of showers has pushed slowly west from the central Atlantic.  One could argue that its is from the remnants of Florence.  However, it has gone through so many transitions since then that I think that’s a bit of a stretch. Anyway, that feature is to our southeast (offshore), but it creeping closer to the coast.  Unfortunately, it will bring more rain to coastal North Carolina.  They could get about 1-2″ down where the flooding from Florence continues.  The low will probably get close to the coast, but will probably stay just offshore.  Here is the European forecast model’s forecast for later today.

While it is moving over warm ocean water, it is also contending with increasing wind shear.  That should stop it from strengthening much, but we’ll have to watch it due to it’s proximity to land.  Luckily the models all keep it pretty weak and disorganized.

Locally, we have a stationary front in place.  The deep moisture from the disturbance will push to the north/northwest into this boundary.

Regional Weather map

  This will send scattered heavy downpours into the viewing area.  We could even see some localized street flooding just like we had yesterday.  The widespread heavy rain looks to stay to our south, but some of that could impact the southern Outer Banks for a time.  High temperatures will rise to the mid 80s with a mix of sun and clouds today.  Winds will be southeasterly at only 5-10mph.  Maybe some gusts to 15mph along the southern Outer Banks.  By tomorrow the low will already push out to sea.  After a stray shower in the morning we’ll clear out for a longer time.  Skies will be partly cloudy for most of the day.  Winds will be variable at 5-10mph.  High temps will jump to the upper 80s with a few 90s possible inland.  The heat index will be in the mid 90s.  Welcome to Fall….

A cool front will move through on Thursday.  This will run into the tropical airmass that is already in place.  So we’ll have a wide area of rain showers in the region. It could be heavy at times.  At least it will knock down the temps.  High temps are now forecast to only rise into the upper 70s.  In fact some models are calling for low-mid 70s.  We’ll have another front move through on Friday.  It could create a few showers. Highs will be in the low 80s.  Then we’ll be mild and dry over the weekend behind that front.

Over the rest of the tropics there are two other features.  There is subtropical depression Leslie.  This may go up-and-down in strength over the next few days.  It may loop around for the next 3-5 days, however, it is forecast to stay out to sea.

There are also the remnants of Kirk.  That is moving west, and has a medium chance for reformation over the next few days.  Regardless, it may bring some heavy rain to the Lesser Antilles in the next couple of days.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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