Blog: Tricky Timing For Some Showers

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Siiiiigh! Yes….I started this blog with a big sigh. The reason is due to the upcoming forecast.  My coworker Don Roberts calls this no whine Wednesday (not no wine Wednesday). However, the overall 7-day forecast looks somewhat wet and pretty tricky. Let’s delve into things.

This morning things were still fairly simple. We have high pressure off to our northeast, but it was moving farther away. There was also a stationary front sitting over northeast North Carolina. 

There was a weak disturbance in the upper levels moving along the front as well. So there were some scattered rain showers over North Carolina. We’ll have some scattered light rain showers today, but it won’t be a washout. The scattered showers in Hampton Roads will move in later this morning through the afternoon. They should taper off by the evening. High temps will be in the upper 40s to low 50s.  We’ll have a northeast wind at 8-12mph.

By tomorrow, the front will sag to the south. We’ll dry out again with partly cloudy skies. High temps will aim for the low 50s.  From Friday onward, the forecast gets a bit messy … literally and figuratively. 

Generally, the models have scattered showers returning on Friday. The NAM and Euro have them for most of the day, but the GFS has them mainly in the morning. High temps will likely be cooler in the 40s.

On Saturday, the Euro warms us up to the 60s with some showers in the morning, then dry for the rest of the day. The GFS is cooler (50s). It is pretty dry for the day. On Sunday, the GFS has rain for most of the day while the European model holds the rain off until late in the day.

They do both have lots of rain picking up on Sunday night. They both have an area of low pressure developing near the region, but the Euro has a much stronger low. They push out the low on Monday, but the moisture hangs back along a cold front. The European model starts off much warmer by that time. So it has mostly rain Monday morning. It dries us out by midday. Meanwhile, the GFS has a large area of a wintry mix of rain and snow in the morning, and it only slowly moves it out by the afternoon.

The truth is that the bulk of what I just said about the weekend into Monday could already change by the time you read this blog. The models already flip-flopped once (maybe twice) in the last 24 hours.  So we’ll see how they trend over the next 24 hours. We still have plenty of time before the weekend even arrives. Let alone Monday. One thing that they all agree on is that the weather will be much colder next week. Hopefully, the plants and trees don’t take a hit from the cold, but they might. Stay tuned for updates.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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