A nor'easter is developing near our area today. It is basically going to turn into a mess for the entire region, and even more so for the northeast states. This morning we had lots of rain in our region.
Temperatures were well above freezing. We started with temps in the low 40s. An area of low pressure was developing over southern North Carolina. It is moving steadily to the east/northeast along a stationary front.
The low will push offshore through the day. This will allow the winds to increase out of the northeast behind it. They will run at 10-20mph with gusts increasing to 35mph. Mainly near the shore.
The rain will increase in coverage through the day. It will basically become widespread during the midday and the afternoon.
Notice that the temps will be in the 40s, and that the wintry weather stays over towards I-95. I think we'll make it to the mid 40s, but temps will not warm up much due to the clouds, rain, and wind. We'll be wet for the evening commute. Rain may be heavy at times.
The wind will also increase by that point. There may already be a few gusts above 40mph near the shore.
They will mainly run out of the north/northeast.
That stronger north wind will be able to pull down some colder air from the north. That will allow the rain to change over to a wintry mix later this evening.
Now typically the model is too warm during heavy precipitation. So I have a feeling we will see a larger area of mix. Keep in mind that the models drastically cut back on the snow area since last night. Even last night the models had a period of about 1-3 hours of primarily snow (and a small amount of mix). Now they only have a small area of mix. Either way I think we may see a small window of snow trying to fall. It may producer a dusting on some grassy surfaces. Maybe a little more in spots. This is mainly in inland locations.
The map is apt to change. We'll see if the models go a little colder by later today. Either way, wintry weather doesn't look like it will be a big deal for us. It will be a big deal in the northeast states again. Some areas could see a foot of snow....again. They will also have wind and tidal flooding.
We will have some tidal flooding in our region. The forecast levels have come down a little since yesterday. I would say that we'll have nuisance to minor tidal flooding locally. Here is the forecast for Sewell's Point.
This system looks like it will move much faster than last weekend's system. It also doesn't look quite as strong. However, during the last storm a lot of dunes and protective sand got washed away. With the increasing waves, this could pose a threat to some of the homes along the shore. We will have to watch this carefully. There will be some ocean overwash along highway 12 again. Ocean-side and Sound-side tidal flooding will be possible along the Outer Banks. The sound-side flooding could happen on Tuesday as the winds will be mainly out of the west.
The wind will steadily (decrease) as we go through the day. We'll have a mix of sun and clouds tomorrow. High temps might pop up to near 50 for an hour, but most of the day will be in the 40s. We'll stay chilly through Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will be in the 40s and 50s. By next weekend we'll warm things up. Highs will be in the 50s Friday and Saturday. Then we'll be in the 60s by Sunday. I thought we would warm up by Saturday, but the GFS model brings back some brief cooling for the day. We will be warmer for all of next week. This will be a longer term weather pattern, and frankly I can't wait.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler
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