Today's weather won't be too bad, but it sure could be better. Especially for mid-March. We started off with lots of clouds and a few peeks of sun. There were a couple of sprinkles, but that was about it. There is an area of high pressure near the Ohio River Valley, but it has stopped building east. Moisture will increase in our region today, but the big weather-maker is still developing to our southwest. Right now there is a weak area of low pressure over towards northern Alabama.
This low is going to become a nor'easter in the next 36 hours. Today it will move into western North Carolina and South Carolina. It will stay fairly weak. However, moisture is pushing up into our region.
We'll have a lot of clouds through they day. Scattered showers will move slowly from south to north.
(The earlier version of Future Trak had a more continuous band of showers). The showers should be pretty light, but the coverage should increase this afternoon. Winds will be out of the northeast at 10-15mph. A few higher gusts could happen near the shore. Between the clouds, the showers, and the wind; we'll only have high temps in the upper 40s to low 50s. So it won't be the worst day out, but it won't be too pretty either. By tonight the rain will become more widespread. Wind will increase out of the northeast at 10-20mph with gusts up to 30mph near the Outer Banks by Dawn. On Monday the system will become a nor'easter for our region. It will move offshore, and it will quickly strengthen.
The rain will be pretty widespread over the viewing area. It could be heavy at times. Meanwhile some snow is possible west of I-95 or even near I-95.
I think the rain/snow line will be a little farther east than Future Trak shows. The wind will run out of the northeast at 10-20mph with gusts to 35mph. Mainly near the shore.
High temps will be in the 40s. Temperatures will be well above freezing during the day. By Monday evening some colder air will drop south on the back side of the system. The rain/snow line will move east.
We'll have a brief time of rain, sleet, and snow here, but it dosn't look like it will last too long. It may even change over to a wet snow for a short-period. Maybe for a couple of hours. Between the wet ground, nature of the mix, and surface temps above freezing; I don't expect there to be much accumulating. There may be a light dusting on some grassy/elevated surfaces, but I don't think it will be much. It could add up to over an inch on mainly grassy areas on the western fringe of the viewing area with higher amounts towards I-95. Unfortunately, people are going to take their eye off the ball and focus on the chance for snow, when in reality the wind and rain are going to cause problems. From Monday night into Tuesday morning the low will be gaining strength well offshore. It will be to our northeast. Our local winds could gust to 45mph near the shore by Tuesday morning. They will be out of the north/northwest by then.
Overall, the rain will move out on Tuesday. An upper level trough could create a few sprinkles or flurries, but it should be no big deal. Winds should decrease slightly through the day on Tuesday, but it will stay breezy out of the northwest. The latest GFS model keeps it breezy through Wednesday now as the nor'easter lingers off the coast of the northeastern U.S. I think they will have more problems up there. The models have actually trended more towards the GFS and away from the European forecast which is unusual.
For reference...The last system we had wind gusts to 55-65mph. This next system, the wind will gust up to around 45mph. So there should be less wind damage and less power outages. With the increase in winds forecast, we'll see some tidal flooding again. Right now it looks like we'll have minor tidal flooding Monday into Tuesday. Unfortunately, the last system washed away some of the dunes and sand near the coast. So with the Mondy-Tuesday system we may have more beach erosion which could threaten some of the roads and homes. Luckily this system will move out faster, and it won't linger for days like the last one did.
We'll be dry and chilly for most of next week, but I think we are finally looking at a break in the weather pattern. We'll warm up to the upper 50s by the end of the week. By next weekend highs will be in the 60s. We may warm up even more next week. We'll see. Stay tuned for updates!
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler
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