Blog: Not As Warm As Last Year….But…!

Weather
TEMPERATURE TREND_659280

I did the weather this morning, and I talked a little about climate during my temperature trend forecast.  This is a forecast yes, but it does show the average high temperature.  Also, today I showed the record high temperature for this date. Here is that forecast…

Temperature Trend
Temperature Trend

The forecast high is 60 degrees for today.  The average high temperature is 51.  The record high for today was from last year.  It hit a whopping 79 degrees on December 18th 2016.  I remembered it being very warm last year.  So I thought I would look up the temperatures form December to compare.  It was interesting.  From December 1st through December 18th temperatures were actually pretty similar to this year.  Here is a quick summary:  # of Days With…        2016                            2017

Temps 40 or above                       17                               16

Temps 50 or above                       10                               12

Temps 60 or above                        4                                  3

This is assuming that we hit 60 today.  I got this info from the National Weather Service’s website.  Hopefully I added them up correctly.  Temps were up and down for the rest of December last year.  We will be warm for most of this week, but we’ll probably have another big cool down by Christmas.  More on that in a moment.

Today there is a warm front that is moving slowly to our north.  High pressure is slowly trying to build east into our region.

Regional Weather map

We’ll have lots of sunshine today.  High temps will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.  Winds will be light and out of the southwest.  By tomorrow we’ll warm up even more.  We’ll start the day in the 40s mainly.  High temps will rise to the mid 60s. We might even hit the upper 60s in some places.  Skies will be mostly sunny.  We’ll have a light west wind.

A cold front will move into the region on Wednesday.  High temps will drop to the mid 50s.  We’ll have quite a bit of clouds.  An area of low pressure will move east along the stalling cold front. This will happen over both Carolinas.  So we’ll have a high chance for rain over North Carolina on Wednesday with a few showers in southeast Virginia.  We’ll be in the low 50s on Thursday.  This will be the first day of Winter.  Skies will be partly cloudy. We’ll warm up again on Friday with highs in the low 60s.  Things look dry for Friday so far.  On Saturday we’ll have some warm temps, but also a high chance for rain.  That will impact travel in the region.  High temps will be in the upper 60s, but it will be tough to enjoy it with the rain.  The trend has changed for Sunday into Monday.  Before it looked like we would stay warm through Monday.  Now it looks like some colder air will move in Sunday into Monday.  This will impact Christmas Eve and Christmas.  Now…it’s early.  So don’t take this part of the forecast too literally just yet.  There will be a few showers around on Sunday with highs in the 50s.  The warmer air will be just offshore and could still impact North Carolina.  Then on Christmas Day it looks like some moisture will come up out of the south.  There will be some colder air inland.  So some of the models are hinting at snow for (parts) of the viewing area on Christmas Day.  Maybe even a wintry mix of rain, sleet, and snow.  Now.. 1.  It’s too early to get too excited just yet.   2.  The bulk of Hampton Roads is in the cold-rain part of the forecast, and 3.  Things will likely change before we get there.  So stay tuned for updates.  It’s still pretty far out in time.  We’ll be updating things over the next couple of days.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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