We had a milder morning across the region today. Temps were more in the 40s and 50s as expected. there were only a couple of 30s inland. It was a picturesque moment in Virginia Beach as a large flock of birds flew past the camera at Lynnhaven inlet for about 10 minutes.
We’ll have some great weather today. High pressure has slid just offshore. Our surface winds are out of the southwest.
We had light southwest winds this morning, but they will increase to 8-12mph by midday. Also we’ll have mostly to partly sunny skies today. This will push the high temperatures up to the low-mid 70s this afternoon. It will be very comfortable outside with low humidity and fair skies.
A cold front in the Midwest will slip into our region early tomorrow. It will drop temperatures to closer to 60 degrees by tomorrow afternoon. The front will pass through dry though. So we’ll only see a few clouds and a wind change as the front passes. We’ll be cooler and dry on Thursday with highs in the upper 50s.
On Friday we’ll have increasing clouds and moisture in the region ahead of a weekend system. We may see a few showers already by Friday afternoon. Then rain rain showers will increase into the evening and overnight. By Saturday morning the low will be in our region. At this time the models agree on this point, but they disagree on the exact track, size, and strength of the low. The GFS model has a potent offshore low that would bring in some heavy rain and strong/persistent winds through most of Saturday. It shows a smaller low, but more potent. Meanwhile the European model and our Future Trak model shows a bit more of a broader low. They also move they system through a little faster. Here is what our Future Trak model shows for Saturday morning.
Future Trak is a bit in-between the GFS and Euro, but maybe a little closer to the Euro. A broader low means that the pressure gradient isn’t as strong. This would produce less wind, and for a shorter time. However, it still would be enough that we may see some minor tidal flooding. If the GFS pans out, then we could possibly even have some moderate tidal flooding. As usual, it’s still early. We’ll be able to be more specific in the next 12-24 hours as the models come together. It will also be within range of the NAM model by that point. The differing impacts go into Sunday as well as the Euro is much drier than the GFS due to the speed of the system. Stay tuned for updates.
The Atlantic Ocean is still quiet, but the eastern Pacific is busy. There is a major hurricane (Willa) that is going to make landfall along the west coast of Mexico today.
It was a category 4 hurricane this morning. It will likely make landfall as a major hurricane this afternoon. It is forecast to pass between Puerto Vallarta and Mazatlan. They have already had flooding in that region.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler