Blog: Messy Weather Returns To The Region!


I hope folks enjoyed Sunday with the large amount of sunshine that we had.  Because the weather will deteriorate over the next 2 days.  Sound ominous?  Well, for one thing Winter fatigue has set in on me.  Also, I caught a cold over the weekend, and it’s the kind that saps your energy.  But enough about me.  Let’s talk about this weather….

Today won’t be too bad really.  Clouds will increase.  We may see some isolated showers, but the chance is only 20%.  Plus temps will rise to the upper 50s.  The wind will be light and out of the southeast.  High pressure is slowly pushing away from the region.

Regional Weather Map

Meanwhile, there are two areas of low pressure that are slowly moving towards the region.  There is a weaker area of low pressure that is north of Jacksonville, FL. Then there is a bigger area of low pressure that is near Memphis, TN.  The weaker low will travel up along the coast.  We’ll have some overrunning precipitation tonight ahead of the low, but that system will bring us quite a bit of rain through the day tomorrow.  At the same time the bigger low will travel east into the western parts of Virginia/North Carolina.

Forecast Map Tuesday

We’ll have a lot of rain through the day tomorrow.  It could be heavy at times. Especially in the morning.

Future Trak (Tuesday Morning)
Future Trak (Tuesday Afternoon)

Surface winds will be out of the northeast at 10-15mph with gusts up to 25mph.  High temps will be in the low 50s.  Before it looked like we would tap into some of the warmer air coming up from the south, but the smaller low moving out to sea will probably stop that form happening.  It will drag a weak cold front through the area.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the southern Outer Banks makes it into the mid 60s while it only makes it into the upper 40s in Gloucester and Melfa.

By Wednesday the bigger low will move out to sea.  It will merge with the smaller low out there.  Then it will strengthen.  This will allow stronger winds to come in out of the north/northeast.  This will pull down some colder air from the north at all levels.

Wednesday's Forecast
Wednesday’s Forecast

We will see some problems Wednesday morning, but the wintry weather will be to our west. One possible problem is that the rain could be heavy.  The wind won’t help either. Snow will be well to the west and north at that time.  Temps will probably be in the upper 30s and holding.

Future Trak (Wednesday Morning)

By the afternoon the rain/snow line will move east as the colder air arrives.  It looks somewhat similar to what happened last Monday.

Future Trak (Wednesday Afternoon)

Surface temps will be above freezing, but I bet they will drop as the snow moves in.  The ground will be very wet as the snow comes in.  So it will have to be heavy to overcome the wet ground and above freezing temps.  That is tough to pin down at this time.  The computer models vary on how much snow falls.  Here is what the European model shows.

Snow Forecast (European Model)

Keep in mind that a finer resolution of that model has a lot more snow on the Northern Neck and on northward (a few inches).  The GFS model has some similar amounts for our region with higher amounts north and west.

Snow Forecast (GFS Model)

It’s still pretty early to call amounts.  This will be late Wednesday into Wednesday night.  Some wrap-around moisture could keep some flurries going into early Thursday morning, but we should dry up through the day.  Highs will be in the 40s.  It will be breezy.  We’ll be dry on Friday with highs in the 50s.  By the weekend some more moisture may try to push in.  It was even looking like a bit of wintry weather Saturday morning on the GFS last night, but now it has dried up the forecast a little for the whole weekend.  Let’s get through this big system first. Then I can focus on next weekend.  Did I mention that there could be some minor tidal flooding Tuesday into Wednesday?  Here we go again…

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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