Blog: Memorial Day Weekend! Gulf Of Mexico Trouble!

GFS VS EURO_1527250771155.png.jpg

We started this morning with some great weather.  We had lots of sunshine.  Temps were in the 50s and 60s.  Birds were chirping.  It was awesome.  Today will be another good day.  It will be a wonderful start to the weekend.  High pressure is nearby, but it is moving offshore.  This is going to allow the winds to turn out of the south (5-10mph). 

Between that and the strong sunshine we will heat up quite a bit today.  Temperatures will jump to the mid-upper 80s.  Also the humidity will steadily rise through the day.  Dew points will climb from the 50s and 60s this morning to the upper 60s to near 70 by the end of the day.  The water temps at the local beaches and waterways are closer to 70 degrees now.  So we have a green light for hitting the water. 

By tomorrow we’ll have even more heat and humidity.  High temps will be in the upper 80s to to near 90.  We’ll have partly cloudy skies with only an isolated shower or storm possible in the afternoon.  By the evening we’ll have a weak boundary heading towards us.  So the chance for rain goes up to 40%.  On Sunday we may have a few hit-or-miss showers and storms.  I only have a 30% chance for rain.  Highs will be in the upper 80s. 

By Monday the chance for rain increases.  I have a 60% chance for now.  The moisture will be much deeper, and the pressure will be lower.  This will impact some events for observance.  Temps will be in the 80s.  We’ll have fair to high chances for rain for most of next week.  This will be due to the high humidity levels.  However, it will also partially be from the leftovers from a tropical system. 

 As I write this there is a tropical disturbance east of the Yucatan Peninsula, and it is looking strong on satellite.

By the time you read this, the feature may be upgraded to a tropical depression or tropical storm.  The first name of the season is Alberto.   The computer models are in closer agreement now as to what the system will do.  They take it north/northeast into the Gulf of Mexico by Saturday afternoon. Then they take it to the northwest as a tropical storm and run it into the coast.  They aim it for somewhere between Mobile Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. 

GFS VS European Forecast

Both models weaken the system over land by early next week. This happens sooner on the GFS.  Heavy rain and flooding will be possible over the Southeast states.  The moisture will keep pushing northward, and that will indirectly impact our region.  Again, that will be a factor in how much rain we get next week.  Stay tuned for updates! 

Have a great weekend! 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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