Blog: Historic Rain, But A Gradually Changing Pattern

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Rain has really been adding up lately.  Amounts have been impressive.  We picked up about 1.5 – 2.5″ in the region over the last 48 hours.  Norfolk has had 9.21″ for the month so far (we have one more day to go).  This is 4.27″ above the average.  This puts us 8.16″ above average for the year.  Sounds impressive right?  However, that doesn’t even make the top 10 list of wettest Julys.  The number 10 spot is over 10″.  Then there’s Cape Hatteras….Wow!  Take a look at this graphic that I showed this morning:

According to the National Weather Service they have had over 20″ of rain for the month.  This puts them about 15″ above average.  And that’s without any tropical systems.  The annual total is even more impressive.  55.25″.  That’s 25.17″ above the average.  Wholly Moley!  Those totals make it the second wettest July on average.  The wettest was 20.95″ in 1949.  We may get closer to that number today if the rain picks up, but I doubt we’ll top it.  Either way….it has been wet.  The pattern may be changing soon. 

Today we have a warm front lifting to the north. 

Regional Weather Map

Typically, when you have a warm front lifting north of the area, your rain changes will go down.  However, we do still have a deep layer of humidity in the region.  Plus, there is an upper level low parked off to our west…..again…

We’ll have scattered showers developing later this morning into the afternoon.  Some showers may be heavy.  I have the chance for rain at 60% today.  High temps will be in the mid 80s, and it will be muggy.  The sun will pop out at times, but the bulk of the day will be mostly cloudy.

   Tomorrow we’ll be in the warm zone.  The upper level low may push west slightly.  So we’ll have a mix of sun and clouds with only some scattered pm showers.  I have the chance for rain at 40%, but I may drop it to 30%.  We’ll have partly to mostly cloudy skies.  High temps will rise to the upper 80s to low 90s.  It will stay humid.  We’ll see similar weather Thursday and Friday.  It will be hot and humid with a few scattered showers and storms during the afternoons.  A dying boundary may bring a few showers and storms to the region next weekend, but I still don’t expect too much rain at this time.  By next week I think the long-term forecast will finally change.  I mentioned that it probably would as we got into August.  The latest models hint at the heat out west spreading east by the middle of next week.  We may be trading up rain for big time heat.  Highs will likely be in the 90s.  It’s early yet.  The forecast may change, but be prepared for a possible trade off.  Stay tuned!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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