Blog: Groundhog Day 2018!

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This morning we were watching what the groundhog would say for the long-range forecast. Punxsutawney Phil ended up seeing his shadow.  So it’s 6 more weeks of Winter according to him. I will have a local opinion from Chesapeake Chuck around midday.  On top of that…I was also watching our chance for a wintry mix dry up this morning.  A powerful cold front did swipe through the region this morning.   Winds gusted to over 35mph in several locations.  Temperatures did drop,but not as much as expected.  Dry air came in a little quicker. So the area of wintry mix was very small.

Regional Weather Map
Regional Weather Map

Over the last couple of days, the models were split over weather or not there would be that wintry mix.  The NAM has been dry for days while Future Trak has some up and downs in the amounts.  By the time I got in this morning, Future Trak caught up with reality.  So it had zero for the snow totals.  There will be some brief sleet pellets and flakes of snow, but there will be no accumulations.  After a brief mix this morning we will dry out by the midday hours.  The sun will pop out, but temps will struggle to climb.  Winds will increase out of the northwest at 10-20mph with some gusts up to 25mph.  When I got in this morning temps were in the 50s.  They dropped to the 30s and 40s during the early morning. We’ll be mainly in the upper 30s this afternoon.  It might get back up to near 40 again in some places.  Wind chills will be in the 20s at times.

By tonight high pressure will build into the region.  We’ll have clear skies and lighter winds.  So temps will fall to near 20 degrees.  Tomorrow we won’t have much wind, but temps are forecast to only top off in the upper 30s.  I have a feeling we’ll warm up a little more than the models show.  Either way it will be pretty chilly.  By Sunday we’ll warm up into the 50s.  However, the moisture will also increase.  So rain showers will develop through the day.  We’ll have rain during the afternoon, evening, and overnight.   This will impact folks heading out to watch the Big Game.  However, the weather doesn’t look as bad as before.  The strong area of low pressure that was forecast for us has weakened on the models (so far).  Stay tuned for updates.  We’ll see a few showers into early Monday morning.  Then we’ll dry out.  Highs will be in the 40s. We’ll be in the 40s and dry on Tuesday.  More rain and 50s for Wednesday.

Have a good weekend!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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