Yesterday afternoon was rough around the Richmond area. Basically a rainband on the eastern edge of tropical depression Florence formed and caused some training thunderstorms near Richmond.
There was already broad rotation from Florence. There was ample humidity and some instability in place as well. So several likely tornadoes (NWS will work to confirm today) formed and caused some damage.
Since then Florence has become a remnant low. It is a broad area of low pressure with showers along it and a wind shift line over the Appalachians.
The atmosphere is different today. Florence is weaker, and farther north. There will be a slug of deep moisture that will move over our region today. Between that and the wind-shift (black/broken line above) moving through we’ll have scattered showers and storms this afternoon and evening.
While the threat for severe weather will be much lower, I do think we’ll have a few strong storms with heavy rain and gusty winds later today. The surface winds yesterday were out of the southeast. Today they will be out of the southwest. So the helicity (amount of spin up through the atmosphere) will be lower.
High temps will rise to the upper 80s. Dew points are still in the sopping mid 70s. The breeze will help a little. However, that same breeze has pushed higher water levels up into the waterways connected to the Albemarle Sound. It has pushed up into southern Virginia Beach and Knotts Island. Tomorrow the winds will be out of the north. That will allow the water levels to go down. That same north wind will pull in the drier air. Dew points will drop to the mid (possibly low) 60s. High temps will be in the low-mid 80s with partly cloudy skies. It will finally be a nice day! We’ll be dry and mild on Thursday with lows in the 60s. Highs will be near 80. We’ll be mild and dry on Friday. Then we’ll be warm with a little more moisture on Saturday. A cool front will bring scattered showers back to the region by Sunday.
Tropical depression Joyce is a very resilient system. Despite some strong wind shear and cooler waters it has retained some of its thunderstorms. The forecast calls for it to drift southeast, south, then west.
It should either fall apart in a couple of days, or it could hook back north again eventually. I’m still not concerned about it, but we’ll bring you updates.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler