The latest track of Dorian shows that the storm is nearly stationary over the Grand Bahama Island. The rain, storm surge and winds are incredibly intense. It is slowly starting to making a northerly turn and that will continue tonight into early Tuesday morning. The latest track by the NHC shows a change to the east but it’s very slight. As of 7PM the storm has wind gusts up to 170MPH with storm surge 12-18 feet above normal sea level.
It is about 105 miles east of West Palm Beach and 30 miles NE of Freeport Grand Bahama Island. With the turn WNW overnight, this storm will track along the coast and pick up speed while it does. With some interaction with land, it is expected to weaken but it still is going to be a very powerful storm.
The models are lining up for the most part, but there still is some uncertainty. As the current conditions change, the forecast will also change.
Bur how much rain could we see in our area? The European model shows anywhere from 3-6 inches right along the coast. Here’s the latest model output:
Overall, the forecast will still change and you will need to stay updated. Jeremy Wheeler will have a new weather blog in the morning.
-Meteorologist Casey Lehecka