Blog: Chilly rain, then some snow, then more mixed precip!

Weather
FUTURE TRAK NOON TUE_685264

It has been very soggy for the last 24 hours.  The rain has been light and steady for a while.  So far we’ve picked up about a half an inch up to an inch of rain.

Radar Estimated Rainfall

We could see another half inch to three-quarters of an inch going forward.  However, there is one big difference today versus yesterday.  Yesterday it was warm out.  Temps were in the 60s.  Today we will be chilly with temps stuck in the 40s.  The reason is that a slow-moving cold front has made it just offshore.  We are now on the cold side of the boundary.

Regional Weather Map

The front is almost stalling out just offshore.  Let’s say for now it has really slowed down.  A weak area of low pressure will also stay offshore, but it will creep north along the front.  This will let the rain showers continue through the day.  Rain showers should be steady through midday. They should be more scattered this afternoon.

Future Trak (This Afternoon)

While rain showers will be more scattered through the afternoon and evening, there will still be a decent chance for the rain.  40-60%.  There will be some scattered showers during the evening commute, but the rain won’t be as widespread as this morning.

Future Trak (This evening)

After the early evening, the rain will move out.  We may see a stray spot of mixed precip or two, but it will be very limited.  By tomorrow an upper level disturbance will move through the region.  This will create some scattered light snow showers or a wintry mix in the morning.  It will probably start up after 7am in our region, and is most likely between the mid-morning and midday hours.

Future Trak Tuesday Morning)
Future Trak (Midday Tuesday)
Future Trak (Midday Tuesday)

The precip will kick out by the afternoon, and the sun could pop out.  Notice in the above graphics that the temperatures are forecast to be above freezing for most of the time.  This means that there will probably be a lot of melting. In fact, by the afternoon temps will probably rise to near 40.  The computer models aren’t calling for much snow to fall anyway.  Here is what Future Trak estimates for amounts.

Snow Forecast (Future Trak)

The GFS model has a little more, and it is a little more widespread:

Snow Forecast (GFS Model)

Instead of showing a snow map this time, I will just verbalize what I expect. I think we are looking at a 1/2″ or less of snow in the area.  The snow will be scattered.  So some areas won’t have any accumulations.  There could be a brief hour or two of heavier snow.  So some isolated locations could get up to an inch.  However, the bulk of any snow that falls will only collect on grass and decks.  Even then, there will be a lot of melting.  This all spells out a very low-impact event.  It should mostly melt by the evening commute.  Stay tuned for updates in case it gets a little colder, or if there is a little more moisture.

We’ll dry out tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night.  Lows temps will be in the 20s tomorrow night.  Then high temps will be in the 40s on Wednesday with partly cloudy skies.  High temps will bump up to near 60 on Thursday.  Skies will be partly cloudy. It will be very nice out.  By Friday another slow-moving cold front will move through the region.  Rain showers will pick up through the day.  Temps will be in the 50s.  However, temps will drop behind the front late in the day.  As we get in to the evening the precipitation will probably turn into a wintry mix.  Then it could become some light snow at night.  The models are split on the timing of this as well as the amount of moisture behind the front.  It’s still pretty far out in time.  We’ll have updates.   Saturday looks dry and mild, but there could be some more rain and/or a wintry mix by next Sunday.  The Friday precip could impact Groundhog Day, and the Sunday precip could impact Super Bowl activities.  We’ll see which way the weather trends over the next couple of days.  Stay tuned!

In world news…When it comes to Global Warming, there has been a lot of studies about Carbon Dioxide and its impacts.  However, a new study focused on another greenhouse gas which is actually much more potent…Methane.  According to a new study by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory Methane has been increasing by about 25 Teragrams since 2006.  The study focused on gas and natural gas as a major source of the increasing methane.  Especially, when it comes to venting of the natural gas by companies.  This is as there is a push away from coal towards natural gas.  Especially in the U.S.  The study also figured out that there was a small reduction in the amount released by wildfires. Though this was easily offset by the increase in anthropogenic sources.  Here is the article with more information: NASA study looks at increasing Methane.

In another piece of news….They just had a big blanket of snow in northern Iran.  A rarity. According to the article many Iranian’s are happy about it as they have had a warm Winter so far.  However there were also a large number of unhappy drivers as their vehicles had become stuck.  Here is the article: Snow in Iran.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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