BLOG: A Weekend Storm Mess


The majority of Saturday will be dry, cloudy and cold. The storm that everyone has their eyes on is moving in Saturday evening and will continue through Sunday. The problem with this storm is that location is everything! Many areas will just see rain, but where that rain/ snow line sets up is going to be a very sharp cutoff. 

Most of the models are in agreement but our in house model has a bit of a different story, so I don’t want to completely rule that out but show you why there is still some uncertainty in this forecast. 

Here’s the in-house RPM model. This is putting the rain/snow line between Hampton and Williamsburg. This model is keeping that area in snow throughout the day on Sunday and not changing over to rain. I think this is overdoing it and the rain/ snow line will be closer to Richmond but there is the possibility that it shifts farther south. 

Now here’s the GFS (American) model. This is keeping the rain/ snow line between Petersburg and Richmond. So this model is showing that the entire storm will mainly be rain across our region. It could start and end as a wintry mix but as a sum total that will amount to nothing on the ground. 

And last but not least, here’s the European forecast model. This shows a similar picture of what the GFS is showing with the rain snow line close to Richmond. Which shows most of the area will just be dealing with widespread rain. 

So here’s the takeaways:

Much of the region under the green, a soggy Sunday ahead for those areas. The areas shaded in light pink will start and end as a wintry mix but through much of Sunday it will be raining. The farther NW that you go, the better chance for some accumulating snow. If you are going to be traveling to Richmond or Charlottesville, you need to stay ahead of this storm as some roads will be bad and traveling through those areas will be treacherous.

Could some areas be affected for the commute early Monday morning? Yes. The Northern Neck, Middle Peninsula, Eastern Shore and even parts of the Peninsula could end as a wintry mix which could leave some problems on the road. 

Stay up to date on this forecast throughout the weekend! If you need to head out to get errands done or if you have any plans, Saturday looks to be the better day before the mess unfolds on Sunday! 

Have a great weekend! -Meteorologist Casey Lehecka 

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