Blog: A Cool Down Soon! Tracking hurricane Florence!

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I’ll talk briefly about the local forecast.  Then I’ll tackle hurricane Florence. ( I wish I could tackle it for real!).

We have more heat and humidity in store for the area today.  High temps will aim for near 90 with 80s near the shore.  The heat index will be back up around 100.  The hot/humid weather has been very draining for me lately.  I like warm weather, but the humidity has been rough in the afternoons.  Luckily we’ll have some cooler weather by the weekend.  Highs will drop to the low 80s.

High pressure will be around today.  It should limit the rain chances to 10% this afternoon.  Tomorrow we’ll have a 20% chance for rain.  Then as a cold front moves in over the weekend, we’ll have scattered showers and storms.  The rain chances bump up to 60-70% for both days.  It won’t be a washout, but rain is likely at times both Saturday and Sunday.  Scattered showers will continue on Monday of next week. 

So that’s the local forecast.  In the tropics there is one system winding down, and another one going strong.  Tropical depression Gordon is grinding down over the Tennessee River Valley.  It is causing some flooding over parts of Mississippi.

The system will become a broad area of low pressure soon.  It will move into Arkansas, Missouri, and Illinois with more clusters of heavy rain. 

Meanwhile hurricane Florence is churning over the central Atlantic.  It had a very sharp/distinct eye yesterday and last night.  Since then the eye has clouded over. 

Florence On Satellite

That is a sign that the upper level wind shear has finally affected the system.  So the sustained winds have come down slightly.  The storm may weaken a bit more in the short-term.  Florence is forecast to track to the west for a couple of days, and then turn more northwesterly.  It is expected to stay south of a large ridge of high pressure to the north.  By Tuesday of next week it is forecast to be fairly close to Bermuda. 

The most likely path takes it south of Bermuda, but they are in the possible official path (white cone).  I’m actually surprised that the cone of uncertainty is not bigger though at that time.  From Tuesday onward the models are very split. 

The European model and the Canadian still have a track that has it hitting the east coast.  The GFS is offshore, but does bring it fairly close to shore of the northeast U.S. (AVNO on the above map).  The GFS ensembles are almost all offshore.  I wil say that I don’t think the Canadian model ever does well with tropical systems.  However, the European model carries a lot of weight.   Hopefully, over the next 2 days the models will start to hone in on a forecast.  We have to wait until then before we can get a good sense of where it wants to go.  Stay tuned for updates.

The tropical disturbance in the eastern Atlantic has a big cluster of thunderstorms. It is the one that is west of the Cabo Verde islands.   It will likely organize into a classified system within the next 24 hours. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler


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