This morning there were several reports of scattered flurries and sprinkles in the region. It was very light and scattered. However, there is more precipitation coming in from the west. We actually have weak high pressure at the surface, but there is an upper level disturbance that is causing mixed precip in the region. It actually has a little bit of energy to it.
As the precip moved east it encountered some drier air at the surface. So a lot of it dried up . However, the atmosphere will moisture up as we go through the day. Today that elevated disturbance will slowly trudge east. So we’ll hold onto a lot of clouds. The wintry weather will encounter some warming temperatures. So the mixed precip will turn into scattered rain showers today. It won’t rain the entire time, but there will be scattered showers in-and-out today.
We’ll also have a light northwest breeze. This will keep temperatures in the low-mid 40s this afternoon. Tonight the upper level low will move out. We’ll have clearing skies with low temps dropping down to the upper 20s to low 30s. Then tomorrow we’ll have a lot of sunshine as high pressure build moves closer to the region. We’ll be dry and chilly from Friday into Saturday.
Between Friday and Saturday an area of low pressure is forecast to develop across the south/central U.S. It is forecast to move east over the following 2 days. An upper level trough will try to push some of the moisture up towards our region from late Saturday into Sunday ahead of the surface low. The models handle this differently. So the GFS has some precip somewhat near the region by Saturday afternoon. However, the European model doesn’t bring anything in until Sunday evening. They do agree that the bulk of our viewing area will be more wet than white, but a wintry mix could briefly form over parts of the viewing area. They also agree that heavy snow could fall over western/central Virginia and North Carolina.
They do hint at some heavy rain in our area for a time. They push the system out between Monday and Tuesday, but the upper level portion of the system does linger for a bit through that time. Winds will increase along the coast as the low moves offshore. Cold air could wrap in on the back side of the low.
This could briefly change over the rain to a mix or rain, sleet, and/or snow for a time if that doesn’t happen sooner. It’s still early, but the forecast is starting to come together. While for now it does mostly look like a rain-maker for Hampton Roads, there is a potential for the timing and track to change. So stay tuned for updates.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler