After an overall dry/chilly weekend, we will now see a lot of rain moving into the region over the next few days. The area of high pressure that kept us dry since yesterday is now moving off to our northeast.
The surface map looks pretty rosy this morning, but there is a big upper level trough (dip in the jetstream) overhead. This is quickly pulling in the moisture from the southwest in the upper levels. A warmer/more humid air mass is going to push up over our cooler air mass in place. This is called overrunning, and we’ve seen a good amount of it this Fall. So clouds will increase today. Then rain showers will move in by the afternoon. The rain may start off light, but it will quickly ramp up to some moderate rain.
The rain will be widespread by this evening, and it will continue into the overnight hours. Rain may be heavy at times. There may be some isolated thunderstorms overnight as the surface low moves up into southeast Virginia. Rain will continue through Tuesday morning. Then the rain showers will become more scattered through the day. The area of low pressure will move to our north, but the upper level system will still be overhead. High temps will be in the low 60s. We’ll be a little drier on Wednesday with only some isolated-scattered showers. High temps will drop to the 40s. Then another area of low pressure will move in on Thursday. This will bring us another big area or rain showers. The day may even be a washout. Luckily, I think we’ll dry out in time for the weekend. That’s good news for the Norfolk Christmas Parade.
The region may see about 1-3″ of rain in the next 36 hours.
This will be a soaking rain, but it will be over that time-frame. So most of it should soak into the ground. However, there could be some localized flooding.
There is one more thing to talk about. There is a weak disturbance in the Atlantic to the east of Puerto Rico.
It is starting to get better organized. It has a high chance for formation over the next few days as it moves to the west/northwest. However, the numerous cold fronts that keep moving off of the U.S. should keep the feature out to sea. The models don’t do much with it. Still… we’ll track the disturbed area over the next few days.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler