The weather over the next two days will not feel like late December. In fact, the first day of Winter is tomorrow, but high temperatures are going to be well above average. Before we talk about the temperatures, we need to talk about rain.
Rain has already moved into the region. Deep moisture has started streaming up from the south. There is a warm front that is right along the North Carolina coast, and that has caused scattered showers this morning.
High pressure is moving out. A big area of low pressure was strengthening over Alabama, and it is moving east/northeast. We’ll have on-and-off rain showers today as the warm front slowly rises to the northwest. Deep moisture will continue to increase through the day. Rain will pick up in coverage from the late afternoon into the evening.
This could cause some problems for the evening commute. High temps will rise to the 60s this afternoon. The average high is 51 degrees.
Between this evening and the overnight rain will become widespread, and it could be heavy at times.
We’ll have enough instability that we may have some thunderstorms. A couple of stronger storms could occur over North Carolina where the higher humidity will be highest. This will be from this evening through late tonight. Possibly even into early tomorrow morning. During that time we may have some strong gusts of wind even outside of any thunderstorms. A few gusts may be up to 35mph. Mainly out of the south/southeast.
Tomorrow morning we’ll have a lot of rain in the region as the low slowly slides through the area. A wind shift will swing through, and that should stabilize things a bit by the mid-morning. Rain showers will become more isolated-scattered as we go through the afternoon. However, the wide area of rain overall will impact travel in the region.
High temps will rise to the 60s again tomorrow. Some areas may even hit 70 degrees (Again…first day of Winter!) Winds will stay out of the south through most of the day. The low will move out by Friday night. After a stray evening shower, we should dry out Friday night.
However, we may hold onto some clouds through some of Saturday as the upper level low will be slower to slide east. It will be a little cooler, but not bad. Highs will be in the mid 50s. We’ll be dry and mild on Sunday with highs in the upper 50s. High temps will be in the low 50s Monday and Tuesday for the Christmas holiday. It is possible that a couple of sprinkles (maybe a flurry) could sneak in Monday morning, but temps will be above freezing.
Overall, we could see 1.5 – 2.5″ of rain over the viewing area between this morning and Friday evening.
While I don’t expect widespread flooding, I do think we could see some localized flooding in a few areas. I also wonder if the water will come up a little into Currituck county and southern Virginia Beach due to the persistent south wind. We’ll see. Stay tuned for updates.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler