It’s Corbin Day, and here at SI, that means we are going over.
The Nationals will host the Diamondbacks tonight at National Park in D.C. Lefty Patrick Corbin gets the start today, and those who follow this column know that we always bet the over when Corbin starts. It cashes nearly every time, and we aren’t going to mess with what’s been working. Corbin’s ERA for this season is 4.92, but his xERA is 6.11, and tonight he faces a D-backs team that has scored the sixth-most runs per game this season (5.03). Arizona owns the ninth-best batting average vs. left-handed pitchers, and has the 10th-most extra-base hits. Corbin’s hard-hit and max exit velocity allowed are in the bottom 15% of the league, and the Diamondbacks should be able to score a few runs off Washington's starter before they turn to their bullpen, which owns the fourth-highest ERA in MLB (4.38) for the season. The Nationals bullpen has been struggling, especially lately with an ERA of 6.70 across the past two weeks.
The over has hit 59% of the time for Arizona this year (36-25-0), and they are currently in first place in the NL West -- ahead of the Dodgers. Look for another Corbin—Corbin Carroll—to stay hot at the dish and for Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to tally a hit or two in his return tonight.
On the other side of this matchup is righty Zach Davies. Davies is very good at limiting hard contact, but he’s in the bottom 1% of the league when it comes to generating whiffs. His ERA for the season is 5.11. Meanwhile, the Nationals have been strong offensively across the past two weeks with an average of 5.00 runs per game.
The total has gone over in four of Washington's last 5 games.
Games at Nationals Park have averaged 9.16 runs this season, and today’s total is set at 9.5. 15 runs were scored in last night’s contest, and I expect this one will hit double-digits as well.
The Bets: Over 9.5 (-120) | Corbin Carroll over .5 runs (+110)
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