RICHMOND, Va. (WRIC) — The Institute for Health Metric and Evaluation has moved the Virgina”s peak outbreak of COVID-19 from late May to late April.

This new projection shows the peak number of deaths per day is April 22.

IHME also show’s the curve for Virginia deaths related to COVID-19 flattening out in late May.

On its website, IHME said their projections are updated daily to account for new data and information. The models are based on observed death rates for the coronavirus and not influenced by testing.

The institute said these projections assume that full social distancing will be in affect through May.

At his press conference on Monday, April 6, Gov. Ralph Northam said they would not be changing the state’s plans based on this new projection and would instead continue to follow trends. Currently, Virginia’s stay-at-home order is in effect until June 10.


The new projections say that the peak for coronavirus related deaths in the U.S. will be April 16, with more than 3,000 deaths that day. We are now 10 days away from the projected peak.

They show the national curve will also start to flatten in late May.

To learn more about these projections and IHME click here.