PORTSMOUTH, Va. (WAVY) — Virginia reported 1,456 new cases Friday, bringing its daily average to 1,194 cases per day, just below previous peak averages in August (1,198) and May (1,195).
Virginia is primed to break those previous highs, but whether it goes well beyond those figures is unclear. A recent model from the University of Virginia had Virginia’s peak around our current figures sometime around Thanksgiving. Many of the new cases are coming from Southwest Virginia, mostly due to smaller gatherings, Gov. Ralph Northam said this week.
- New cases: (+1,456, 179,639 total), case average and per capita rate rising
- New deaths (+7, 3,643 total), reported deaths up recently but deaths mostly steady overall
- Current hospitalizations (-17 patients, 1,065 total), trending up overall
- Testing (5.4% 7-day average of positive tests) slight trend up recently but steady overall, Virginia averaging around 18,000 tests per day
Though Virginia is close to setting a new peak in cases, its trend is still considered mostly steady overall in comparison to many other states where cases and hospitalizations are surging. Its case incidence rate of 14 per 100,000 residents is considered high, but still well below other states.
For example, Virginia has seen a 9% increase in new cases compared to two weeks ago, according to the New York Times’ coronavirus tracker. On the opposite end of the spectrum states such as South Dakota, Wisconsin and North Dakota are up 53%, 43% and 42% respectively in that same time, with 10 times the amount of cases per capita. Then there are states such as a Maine, which has a much lower per capita rate than Virginia, but has seen a 105% increase in new cases recently.
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Deaths and hospitalizations are also on the rise in nearly every state. The U.S. reported more than 1,000 new COVID-19 deaths again on Thursday, per the COVID Tracking Project, and it’s averaging nearly 800 per day. Deaths are up significantly in Wisconsin and the Dakotas, the COVID Tracking Project says, and deaths should continue to increase given current trends.
Deaths in Virginia have gone down slightly (according to death certificate reporting dates) compared to most of the summer, but are expected to increase again due to the higher than average case numbers. Fatality rates in hospitals have decreased overall across the country however, due to better treatments and more younger patients contracting the virus. But that was due in part to having less patients overall in hospitals. As COVID-19 hospitalizations go up and strain hospitals, that could lead to worse outcomes. Virginia has yet to see hospitalizations get close to the point, but hospitalizations are up in Southwest Virginia, limiting elective procedures.
Here in Hampton Roads, cases have gone up slightly in the last two weeks, but are still steady overall. The test positivity rate has been continuing to trend down overall and hospitalizations are steady.
However Norfolk is seeing an uptick in positivity rates (up to 5.5%), and Virginia Beach’s rate has gone up to 4.6%.
Here’s the latest cumulative count for Hampton Roads
Accomack 1,219 cases, 97 hospitalized, 19 deaths (+5 cases)
Chesapeake: 4,972 cases, 483 hospitalized, 79 deaths (+27 cases, +4 hospitalized)
Franklin 506 cases, 25 hospitalized, 13 deaths (+8 cases)
Gloucester: 352 cases, 17 hospitalized, 3 deaths (no increases)
Hampton: 2,147 cases, 91 hospitalized, 32 deaths (+9 cases, +1 hospitalized)
Isle of Wight: 878 cases, 45 hospitalized, 26 deaths (+3 cases)
James City County: 965 cases, 68 hospitalized, 22 deaths (+5 cases)
Mathews: 137 cases, 10 hospitalized, 0 deaths (+1 case)
Newport News: 3,247 cases, 119 hospitalized, 51 deaths (+22 cases, +1 hospitalized)
Norfolk: 5,445 cases 411 hospitalized, 84 deaths (+26 cases, +1 hospitalized)
Northampton: 320 cases, 49 hospitalized, 31 deaths (no changes)
Poquoson: 98 cases, 3 hospitalized, 2 deaths (+1 case)
Portsmouth: 2,858 cases, 316 hospitalized, 69 deaths (+6 cases)
Southampton: 933 cases, 29 hospitalized, 38 deaths (+10 cases)
Suffolk: 2,324 cases, 137 hospitalized 78 deaths (+7 cases)
Virginia Beach: 8,057 cases, 444 hospitalized, 108 deaths (+56 cases, +2 deaths)
Williamsburg: 219 cases, 14 hospitalized, 8 deaths (+1 case)
York: 650 cases, 19 hospitalized, 9 deaths (+4 cases)
Key local metrics
- 191 new cases, steady overall
- 2 new deaths, steady overall
- -2 current hospitalizations (189 total), steady overall
- 7-day average of positive tests, 4.37%, decreasing overall
Chesapeake — 4.2% — mostly steady overall (recent drop after 1,998 people tested last Thursday)
Eastern Shore — 3.8% — steady overall but a slight increase recently, (low overall testing)
Hampton— 4.1% — mostly steady overall
Norfolk — 5.5% — mostly steady overall
Peninsula — 3.9% — mostly steady overall
Portsmouth — 4.2% — mostly steady overall
Virginia Beach — 4.6% — steady overall
Western Tidewater — 4.7% — steady overall, back down after recent trend up (70-plus active cases at Deerfield Correctional)
For more data from VDH, click here.
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