Virginia Nov. 2 COVID-19 update: Va. passed average case record over the weekend, 2K-plus cases projected per day in Jan.

Coronavirus

PORTSMOUTH, Va. (WAVY) — Virginia reported 1,026 new coronavirus cases on Monday after surpassing its peak average of new cases over the weekend.

Virginia’s daily average of 1,306 cases per day is more than 100 cases per day above previous highs in August and May, mostly spurred by spikes in Southwest Virginia, and a notable increase in Northern Virginia. Virginia’s case incidence rate per 100,000 residents is now 15.3, which is considered especially high.

Based on current trends, Virginia is now looking at roughly 2,000-plus cases per day on average in late January, according to the University of Virginia’s COVID-19 model. The model previously predicted Virginia would see a peak in cases of about 1,200 per day around Thanksgiving, which Virginia has surpassed already.

Statewide numbers:

New cases: (+1,026, 183,418 total), case average at Virginia’s highest ever level (1,306 per day)
New deaths (+3, 3,658 total), deaths down from levels over the summer
Current hospitalizations (+19 patients, 1,031 total), trending up overall
Testing (5.8% 7-day average of positive tests) slight trend up recently but steady overall, Virginia averaging around 18,000 tests per day

More than three dozen states have rates over 15 cases per 100K, per the New York Times’ coronavirus tracker, though Virginia is on the lower end. For example, the Dakotas have rates of more than 100 cases per 100K, with Wisconsin and Montana over 75.

The commonwealth’s percent of positive tests is also increasing despite increased overall testing, up to 5.8% overall. That’s up about 1% compared to a month ago.

The Eastern District (Hampton Roads) has seen a slight but really insignificant increase in new cases lately, and numbers are well below July/August. One thing of note over the weekend was that President Trump’s Newport News rally in late September was included in new Stanford University data that linked 30,000-plus coronavirus cases and 700 deaths to 18 recent rallies held by the president. Hampton Roads did see notable increases in local cases after the rally.

Cases and hospitalizations are rising across the country, with case records being broken in many states (cases up 45% compared to 14 days ago). Reported deaths are also on the rise, up 17% compared to two weeks ago.

Hospitalizations and deaths

Hospitalizations are continuing to trickle up overall, with an average of 1,050 COVID-19 patients statewide. ICU and ventilators numbers have fluctuated.

Deaths have dropped slightly overall statewide, but remember they lag cases and hospitalizations. Virginia’s “death by date of death” chart shows deaths dropping slightly around late September/early October, but that’s also when cases overall started to go up again. Health experts have attributed the decreases in deaths to better treatments and younger people catching the virus, among other variables.

Local cases

Metrics have been down across the board compared to earlier in the pandemic in Hampton Roads for quite some time, but cases are going up slightly, particularly in Virginia Beach and Norfolk. Virginia Beach is averaging nearly double the amount of cases on average (60 per day) compared to a month ago (30 per day) and its case incidence rate is 13.2 per 100,000 people, which is considered high. Norfolk’s averaging about 30 per day with a 11.9 incidence rate.

Portsmouth is the only one of the seven cities with a case incidence rate below 10 (at 7.8).

Percent positivity is also back up above 5% in several cities.

Here’s the latest cumulative count for Hampton Roads

Accomack: 1,229 cases, 98 hospitalized, 19 deaths (+2 cases)
Chesapeake: 5,058 cases, 483 hospitalized, 79 deaths (+20 cases)
Franklin: 508 cases, 25 hospitalized, 13 deaths (no changes)
Gloucester: 359 cases, 18 hospitalized, 3 deaths (+2 cases)
Hampton: 2,202 cases, 93 hospitalized, 33 deaths (+3 cases)
Isle of Wight: 885 cases, 45 hospitalized, 26 deaths (+2 cases)
James City County: 975 cases, 69 hospitalized, 22 deaths (+6 cases)
Mathews: 137 cases, 11 hospitalized, 0 deaths (no changes)
Newport News: 3,291 cases, 120 hospitalized, 51 deaths (+9 cases)
Norfolk: 5,534 cases 413 hospitalized, 84 deaths (+40 cases, +2 hospitalized)
Northampton: 320 cases, 49 hospitalized, 31 deaths (no changes)
Poquoson: 105 cases, 3 hospitalized, 2 deaths (+3 cases)
Portsmouth: 2,871 cases, 321 hospitalized, 69 deaths (+6 cases)
Southampton: 937 cases, 29 hospitalized, 38 deaths (+1 case)
Suffolk: 2,355 cases, 139 hospitalized 78 deaths (+9 cases, +1 hospitalized)
Virginia Beach: 8,248 cases, 450 hospitalized, 107 deaths (+64 cases, +2 hospitalized)
Williamsburg: 228 cases, 14 hospitalized, 8 deaths (+3 cases)
York: 661 cases, 22 hospitalized, 9 deaths (+3 cases)

Key local metrics

  • 173 new cases, steady overall but up slightly
  • 0 new deaths, trending down
  • +21 current hospitalizations (183 total), steady overall but slight trend down
  • 7-day average of positive tests, 4.9%, back up after long downward trend

Chesapeake — 5.5% — mostly steady overall but recent trend up
Eastern Shore — 5.1% — steady overall but a slight increase recently
Hampton— 4.5% — mostly steady overall
Norfolk — 5.6% — mostly steady overall
Peninsula — 3.9% — mostly steady overall but recent trend back down
Portsmouth — 4.5% — mostly steady overall
Virginia Beach — 5.2% — steady overall but recent trend back up
Western Tidewater — 5.1% — steady overall, back down after recent trend up (70-plus active cases at Deerfield Correctional)

For more data from VDH, click here.

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