Blog: Colder Air Filters In. Will It Bring Wintry Weather?

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We are starting to cool down today, but the colder air is yet to come. We had a cold front move through during the overnight hours. It produced some spotty showers in the region, but they moved out over the ocean before sunrise. The colder air only started filtering into the region.

So we had temps in the 40s and 50s to start the day. Temps won’t rise too much today. They will be in the low 50s in the early afternoon; then we’ll drop to the upper 40s by the late afternoon into the evening. Winds will be breezy out of the northwest, with gusts picking up to 25-30 mph later today.

Meanwhile, a second cold front over West Virginia is quickly dropping to the southeast.

This is the edge of the much colder air, and it will move into our region this evening. It may kick off a stray shower, but otherwise it will move through dry. We’ll be dry and colder overnight. 

Tomorrow morning, we’ll start off with temps in the low 30s. However, the winds will still be strong out of the northwest. So wind chills will be in the 20s. It’s been a while since we’ve had that type of cold at the morning bus stops. So kids need to be prepared. 

Through the day tomorrow, we’ll have lots of sunshine, but high temps will only be in the low 40s. The breeze will stay up out of the northwest. Between Friday and Saturday, low temps will be in the 20s, and high temps will be near 40.

We’ll have some moisture moving back into the region on Saturday. We’ll increase the clouds through the day. By the evening, we may have some scattered rain showers. There could be a light wintry mix inland and north by that time depending on which model you believe. The GFS shows this, but the Euro is drier. 

The models are in agreement on the theme between Sunday and Monday, but the specific details won’t get hammered out until about 48 hours from now.  Basically, an area of low pressure will form over the southeast and will rotate around an upper level trough (dip in the jetstream) and some colder weather.  

Milder air should be able to ride north a bit ahead of the system. So both the GFS and European model have a lot of rain for our viewing area on Sunday. However, they also both have heavy snow between Richmond and the Northern Neck. 

They both have a sharp rain/snow line that sets up somewhere between the Peninsula, Middle Peninsula, and Accomack County. They both have heavy snow just north of that line from Richmond to Reedville to D.C.  So far, they also both show mainly rain for the bulk of the viewing area through the day on Sunday.

They split a little after Sunday afternoon. 

The European model has things wrapping up with only a little light mix Sunday night into Monday morning. However, the GFS model has a lot more moisture behind the surface low through midday Monday. So it brings in a longer time of a wintry mix to the region. Even possibly into the metro for a time. We’ll see how the models update. 

Remember, this is the general trend. It’s still too soon to start talking amounts. Especially, with the sharp cutoff and the rain/snow line looming northwest of Hampton Roads for a while. 

Having said that…I would be prepared for (possible) accumulating snow from Williamsburg to Gloucester to northern Accomack County and points northward. 

During the last event, about a month ago, the rain/snow line stayed a little farther south than the models showed — and that could happen again. Keep in mind that this system isn’t even in range of the NAM model yet (time-wise), and that does a better job with the temperature layers of the atmosphere.

So check back for updates.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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