Blog: Waves, Dorian, Erin, And Dry Air Soon!

Weather Blog

There’s a lot going on in the weather lately, but luckily the severe storms have taken a break. Also…luckily things won’t be too bad locally today. But there are some issues. Plus, the tropics are getting interesting.

Let’s take a look.

Regional Weather Map

The above image shows our regional weather map.We have high pressure to the north, but it is moving a little farther northeast. Locally, we are still catching some moisture off of the ocean, but a northerly wind should bring in some slightly drier air today.

There is a big cold front off to the west/northwest. This is slowly moving in our direction. We had a lot of clouds and drizzle this morning, but we should have some clearing later this morning through the afternoon. Winds will be light and out of the north. High temps will be in the low-mid 80s. Late in the day we’ll have a few showers and storms develop ahead of the front. That will be during the late afternoon into the evening.

There’s a little higher chance for precip in the evening. Then will dry out and clear out overnight. Low temps will be in the upper 60s to near 70. From tomorrow through Saturday we’ll have lots of sunshine. The dew points will drop to the 50s. So it will feel great!

Humidity Forecast

The humidity will go up on Sunday, but it should still be a nice day. Then we’ll have some scattered showers by Labor Day. (Not a washout). We may have an increased chance for rain on Tuesday. That will depend on Dorian….

There are two tropical systems that we are tracking. Erin and Dorian. Erin is well offshore, and it is forecast to stay offshore. It will basically move north over the next 3 days. Then it will weaken over the Canadian Maritimes.

Track Of Erin

While it will stay offshore it will bring us more waves, and that will probably keep the rip current threat up for the next couple of days.

However, Dorian is the system to watch. It is currently southeast of Puerto Rico, but it is moving in that direction. It has gained some strength, and it is forecast to strengthen even more. As of this writing it looks like it will move over Puerto Rico as a strong tropical storm or a minimal hurricane by later this afternoon or early evening.

Track Of Dorian

The track has shifted east. So now it looks like it will affect the eastern part of the island more. The western part of the island may be spared the worst winds now. We’ll see. There is still some wiggle room in the track. Regardless, heavy rain and flooding will be likely along its path. This is terrible news for that island.

After Puerto Rico the storm will move towards the Bahamas. With the shift east in the short-term, this translates to a track more north down the road. So now it is forecast to move north of the Bahamas. Then it is aiming for northern Florida or possibly even coastal Georgia or South Carolina.

Track Of Dorian

The problem is…the model have all been trending north. In fact, many of the global models made a big change over the last 24 hours.

Forecast Models (For Dorian)

Before it looked like it would stay fairly weak, and would move west over the Florida peninsula. Now the models keep it more east. The European model even keeps it offshore of Florida before sending it northeast along the coast. That puts it south of Hatteras around the middle of next week.

The GFS has done a complete turnaround, and now it has a similar track to the Euro, but more into South Carolina. Before it was very weak the entire time, and took it on a due westerly track across Florida. I mentioned it’s recent overhaul lately. So I’m taking anything the GFS does with a grain of salt for now. I don’t use the NAM too much for tropical, but now it keeps it weak and moves it due west.

Either way we’ll be following this storm closely. We won’t be able to give a good medium-range forecast until A. it moves past Puerto Rico, and B. The cool air moving into the eastern U.S. gets modeled better. Stay tuned for updates.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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