Blog: Trading The Heat For Storms! (Updated)

Weather Blog

See below for updated information on the tropics and the flooding potential.

We hit 100 degrees three days in a row ending yesterday. That hasn’t happened since July of 2010. The heat is pushing out today, but the humidity is going to stick around for a bit longer.

We did have some showers and storms last night feeding off of the humid air mass. There were even some reports of damage. Mostly of trees or branches falling down.

Storm Reports

There were about 2-3 rounds of storms between 8 p.m. Sunday and 5 a.m. Monday. Some of them produced heavy rain. Our rain chances will rise up to 100% later this afternoon. A cold front will be moving in from the west. This morning, it was still off to the west.

Regional Weather Map

The front will slowly push in by around midday or the early afternoon. This will increase the coverage and the intensity of the rain as the front hits the very humid air mass in place.

Future Trak (This Afternoon)

We won’t have a lot of heat, but we may have enough heat and humidity that we may see a few strong to severe storms. There is a low risk for severe weather for the mid-afternoon into the early evening, but it will depend on how much warming happens before the front arrives.

Severe Risk

This risk may be amended later today.

For now I have high temps reaching to near 80 by midday, but there probably be some locations staying in the 70s. Either way temps will be in the 70s this afternoon as the rain picks up.

Tonight, the heavy rain and thunderstorms will transition into some scattered lighter showers. They should taper off by midnight. Lows will be in the upper 60s.

Tomorrow, we’ll have a mix of sun and clouds. The front will be to our south, but we’ll have some moisture coming in off of the ocean. So there will be a few scattered showers at times. I doubt there will be any storms. High temps will be in the low 80s. Despite some of that moisture coming in, we’ll still be drier than the last few days. We should dry out tomorrow night. Then we’ll have nice weather from Thursday into the weekend. Highs will be in the 80s with fair skies.

There is a potential for flooding later today into the evening. We could see a solid 1-3″ over part of the region. Then we could have another half inch tonight into tomorrow — though the bulk of that would be tonight.

Here are the forecast rain totals for the next 36 hours:

Rainfall Forecast

Update: There is a Flash Flood Watch for parts of the area.

Flash Flood Watch

On top of all this, there is a tropical depression that I am tracking east of Florida. It is tropical depression 3.

Update: Tropical depression 3 has dissipated. It is no longer a tropical system.

It looked very ragged last night. Then it had a couple of clusters of thunderstorms perk up around it this morning. It is forecast to move north, and then northeast.

Track Of Tropical Depression #3

While the track does bring it closer to the southern coast of North Carolina, it is forecast to stay pretty weak. Even if it strengthens for a short time, the stronger winds are forecast to stay offshore. The cold front that is passing through here and the upper level winds along it should chew up the system by tonight. It is forecast to dissipate by early tomorrow. We’ll see.

Stay tuned for updates, watch for possible flooding later today, and enjoy the cooler weather.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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