Locally, we are going to have some great weather this weekend. We started off with lots of sunshine over the region this morning.

Tower Cam

For once we didn’t have a deck of clouds form between 8 and 10 a.m. Temps were in the 50s and 60s. We have a cool front slipping to our south, but it is falling apart. It will basically reinforce the cool/dry air that is already in place.

Regional Weather Map

A giant area of high pressure is centered to the west, but it is creeping a bit closer. We’ll have lots of sunshine today, and that will try to warm things up. However, we’ll have a steady northeast wind running at 8-12mph. So high temps will be in the upper 70s with a few 80s inland.

Forecast Temps Today

The humidity will drop some more. Dew points will be in the 50s through the day. We’ll have a near-repeat of the weather tomorrow. We’ll have lots of sunshine with high temps near 80. We’ll stay dry as well. However, the wind will be lighter and out of the east. So it might warm up a little more inland.

We’ll still have some great weather on Sunday. We’ll have fair skies with high temps in the low-mid 80s.

Weekend Forecast

The humidity will start rising on Sunday, but it will be more in the muggy zone early next week.

Muggy Meter

In fact… with high temps in the mid-upper 80s it will feel like it’s near 90 with the heat index Monday and Tuesday.

Ironically, there is no rain in the 7-day forecast. The U.S. drought monitor updated yesterday. There is now a severe drought over the Eastern Shore, and the rest of the viewing area is abnormally dry (Level 1).

U.S. Drought Monitor

I would say that there are some pockets of moderate drought in the region. They will likely show up on the next update.

Will we get some rain from tropical storm Fiona? Ask Shrek. Just kidding. As of this morning Fiona was moving to the west. It had weakened a bit since last night.

Tropical Satellite

The sustained winds were down to 50mph. However, it did look like some more storms were firing up by the mid morning. They were also closer to the center. The storm is moving steadily to the west. There is a high confidence that it will move over the north end of the Lesser Antilles as a tropical storm.

Track Of Fiona

It will then probably pass just south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Even if it tracks just to the south then they will still get some wind and rain from the storm. After that it will turn to the northwest. This will run the storm over the Dominican Republic. It could ride a little farther west and pass over Haiti. The amount of interaction with land will determine how strong the storm is. There is plenty of warm water along its path.

Ocean Heat Energy And Forecast Models

After that the latest track takes it up towards the Bahamas.

Track Of Fiona

Some of the models like the GFS and hurricane WRF take it more easterly and keep it stronger. They run it up towards Bermuda. However, the European model is still on more of a westerly track. It also keeps it weaker.

GFS VS Euro

Eventually the Euro has it turning north and then northeast. This would keep it offshore, but it would pass closer to the coast if that were to happen.

So unless the system stays weak and more to the south, then we are likely to get an elevated rip current threat again. We could have some high waves and some beach erosion if the storm gets cranking. As of today there is a low chance that it could head toward the east coast directly. I think there are better odds that it will stay offshore. Either way we will have to watch Fiona carefully over the weekend. Stay tuned for updates.

In the mean time enjoy the local weather. It should be nice for the Battle of the Bay on Saturday and the NAS Oceana Airshow.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler