There is a lot going on in weather. Locally, we have a powerful cold front that will drop into the region. This will crash our temps just in time for Fall to officially arrive. This morning we had temperatures rising quickly through the 70s. The strong cold front was picking up speed over the Appalachian Mountains as it dropped to the southeast.

Regional Weather Map

We will heat up fast today as the winds will be strong and out of the southwest. We’ll have some gusts up to 20mph. Skies will be mostly sunny for a while. Then we’ll have some increasing clouds this afternoon. High temps will rise to the low 90s.

Forecast Temps Today

The heat index will be in the mid 90s for many. However, temps will drop for some during the mid-afternoon. Look at the difference in the heat index between Norfolk and Williamsburg.

Heat Index Forecast

Temperatures will drop to the 70s by the evening commute. So take the warm rain jacket for later today, or perhaps a sweater and a hat.

As the front sweeps in we’ll have a broken line of showers and storms form just ahead of it.

Future Trak This Afternoon

This line could have a few heavy downpours. It could also have some strong/gusty winds for a time. The winds will flip around to out of the north.

12 Hour Wind Forecast

The scattered thunderstorms will steadily sink to the south. They could affect some folks during the evening commute.

Future Trak This Evening

The line will drop to our south by the mid-to-late evening hours. Before it wraps up we could get a quick quarter to half inch of rainfall. We’ll take every drop we can get.

Tonight we’ll have clearing skies. Temperatures will keep dropping down the upper 50s. The wind gusts will be out of the north at 30mph. Tomorrow the front will keep sinking to the south. High pressure will build in. We’ll be mostly sunny, but high temps will only make it to the upper 60s.

Forecast Temps Tomorrow

It will be a different world! It will even be chilly at times as the wind stays up out of the north through the day. We could still have a few gusts to 30mph out of the north. Friday night could be pretty chilly. Low temps will drop to the low 50s with some 40s possible inland. Then we’ll have some nice weather on Saturday. High temps will be in the low 70s with lots of sunshine. The wind will be calmer too. We’ll warm to the 80s on Sunday.

Meanwhile things are becoming very busy in the tropics. We’ve been covering hurricane Fiona for a while. Tropical storm Gaston continues to spin over the northeast Atlantic. Plus, a new tropical system is brewing in the eastern Caribbean.

Tropical Satellite

You’ll notice on the above map that there are also 2 tropical disturbances in the eastern Atlantic. I won’t be covering those today.

This morning Fiona looked like it was weakening on the tropical satellite.

Fiona On Satellite

The eye was becoming more ragged, and this was noted by the National Hurricane Center in their discussion. However, it had shown signs of reorganizing in the last hour or 2. Regardless, the hurricane is still forecast to remain a major hurricane as it passes to the west/northwest of Bermuda tomorrow morning.

Track Of Fiona

Even though the center of Fiona will pass to the west the area, hurricane force winds will probably be able to reach the island.

Wind Forecast Of Fiona

They will definitely have tropical storm force winds and high waves. After that latitude the storm will set its sights on coastal Canada. It may hit Nova Scotia as a hurricane, or it may be a nor’easter with hurricane force winds. We’ll see how fast the cold air wraps into the center.

Track Of Fiona

Fiona is creating some large swells that are hitting our local beaches. Waves will run about 2-4 feet in Virginia Beach. There is moderate to high risk or rip currents there. There is a high risk for rip currents with rough surf over the Outer Banks. Waves will reach about 4-6 feet there. There could also be some ocean overwash today.

Rip Current Risk

On the other side of the Atlantic tropical storm Gaston continues to churn. It is moving to the east/northeast. The updated forecast now has it getting closer to the Azores islands.

Track Of Gaston

So they will have some tropical storm force winds there, but I don’t think it will be too bad overall. Eventually, Gaston will weaken over that area.

As mentioned there are 2 tropical disturbances in the eastern Atlantic. I’ll talk more about those in tomorrow’s weather blog. However, many are laser focused on the disturbance in the eastern Caribbean.

Tropical Weather Outlook

The red area is the expected area of development. The models are in good agreement in the 1-3 day forecast. The tropical disturbance is expected to move to the west/northwest. This will take it over an area of high ocean heat energy.

Forecast Models And Ocean Heat Energy

Also, wind shear won’t be too strong. So it could even become a hurricane in the next few days over that zone. Then the models take it over the Gulf of Mexico. Some models even have it missing land and going straight into that body of water (possibly as a major hurricane already). After that the models are split, but keep in mind that that is pretty far out in time. We are talking about 7-8 days. Here are the latest models:

Forecast Models

The GFS has been trending west, and the European has been trending east. However, both show a strong system into next week.

GFS VS European Model

Could it head towards Texas? Louisiana? Florida? It’s still way too early to tell. The track will be heavily dependent on the synoptic weather over the U.S. So stay tuned for updates.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler