Blog: Strong Storms possible this afternoon and evening

Saturday will feature a chance of strong to severe t-storms in the afternoon as a cold front approaches from the west. The primary concern will be strong, damaging winds in a few of the storms but an isolated tornado or small hail can’t be ruled out.

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WHAT: Risk for strong to severe storms

WHEN: Saturday afternoon and evening (2 to 3 pm and then again late evening, 7 to 9pm)

WHERE: All of Eastern VA and NC

As of Saturday morning, we’re keeping an eye on showers and storms in the mountains. These showers and storms are expected to track east this afternoon and restrengthen across central VA and NC. They’ll then push into our area in the afternoon and evening.

Our area is in a level 2 severe weather risk zone for today. This means not everyone will see strong to severe storms, but a few areas could.

The primary time of concern will be from mid afternoon into the evening (2-3pm to 9pm). There may be two rounds of showers and storms. FutureTrak shows an initial line moving into the western portions of our area (Surry, Sussex, Southampton, Northampton NC) around 2-3 pm. This line will then progress east/northeast. It is possible that this first batch of rain misses some parts of our region. So the PM risk is more isolated while the evening risk is more widespread.

The primary concern will be strong, damaging winds in a few of the storms but an isolated tornado or small hail can’t be ruled out. I do think we could see a slightly higher risk for strong storms across areas near Franklin, Ahoski, Wakefield, Southampton and Northampton NC areas. Another question in the forecast is how much instability (known to meteorologists as CAPE) will we have? With clouds pushing in through the morning we could see instability a little lower. That could limit the risk a bit. Any breaks in the clouds will increase storm chances.

Highs this afternoon will be in the mid to upper 70s. Temperatures will cool Sunday as the cooler air moves in behind the front. Highs Sunday will only be in the upper 60s to near 70. We’ll keep these cooler temperatures going into next week.

Of note as well this morning there’s a wildfire burning in southern NC. The southerly wind will likely carry some more smoke into our area this afternoon. Air quality has been reduced some across the I-85/I-95 corridor area and into parts of NC.