We did end up having some strong storms and heavy rain last night over the region. There were some reports of street flooding over Portsmouth and parts of Hampton Roads. There were even some wind damage reports.
All of this was without a big weather feature in the area. However, today the threat for strong storms will be higher and more widespread as a cold front slowly sinks into the region.
The atmosphere is still pretty warm and humid. High temps will be in the mid-upper 80s this afternoon with a few 90s to the south. The heat index will still be in the upper 80s to near 90. It just won’t be as hot as the last few days. As the cold front slowly drops in this afternoon we’ll have an increasing chance for rain and storms. They will increase in coverage between the mid afternoon and the early evening.
The storms will move very slowly south due to the slow motion and heavy rain, some flooding will be possible. It will probably be over a larger area than yesterday. There is also a risk for severe weather. As of this writing there is a slight risk for severe weather over most of the region.
Strong damaging winds are the main threat from the storms. Large hail is a low-end moderate threat. Flooding is a moderate threat overall, but may be a high threat for areas that have had heavy rain recently.
Tornadoes are the lowest threat, but not zero.
The storms will continue into the evening, and they will slide down into North Carolina. Some showers will linger north of the front. So we could hold onto some scattered showers through Saturday morning. After that we will probably only see some isolated showers Saturday afternoon.
All-in-all I think Saturday will be a decent day, but a few showers are possible. At least it will be much cooler for the entire area. High temps will be in the upper 70s. We’ll have a northeast breeze at 5-15mph.
On Sunday, the front will stall out over North Carolina. So far it looks like it will stall out just south of the viewing area. This could allow for a few spotty showers north of the front. However, the models do vary as to where that front will set up. That could change the chance for rain. For now I have a 30% chance. I think it will be cool though either way. High temps will be in the upper 70s.
The weather early next week will depend on the tropical forecast.
In the Atlantic Basin, one system is falling apart: Chantal. It was a depression this morning, but it was barely hanging on.
It will fall apart at sea within the next 24-48 hours (if it hasn’t already). There is another area that we are watching. It is currently a weak disturbance over the Bahamas.
It has a low chance for formation in the short term, but it has a medium to high chance of formation over the next few days. The low will likely move north along the coast, but it probably won’t strengthen until it moves offshore to the northeast.
At least that is what the latest models are showing.
It could bring us back some heavy rain, but I don’t think the wind will have much of an impact.
Unfortunately, it will probably bring us some waves, but they won’t arrive until well after the ECSC. Waves there today are 1-2 feet. Possibly 2-3 feet tomorrow. Stay tuned for updates on all of this over the weekend.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler