Blog: Still Cool Here, But Tropics Heating Up.

Weather Blog

We are coming off of a cool weekend. It was nice at times, but there were also some scattered showers at times. Many folks enjoyed the break from the heat, but now some are hoping for drier weather.

Believe it or not, there are still some viewers that have missed the recent showers and need rain.

We will still be cool today, but there will be some scattered rain showers at times. High pressure is to our north, but we have lots of moisture coming in off of the ocean.

Regional Weather Map

So this morning we already had areas of drizzle and light showers pushing in from the ocean. This will be the case today. Scattered light showers and drizzle will fall on-and-off through the afternoon and evening. The rain won’t add up to much. Maybe a tenth of an inch or two. As mentioned, today will be cool again. High temps will be in the upper 70s. There will be some 80s inland/south. The breeze will be stronger than it’s been in weeks.

It will run out of the northeast at 10 mph to 15mph with gusts up to 20 mph near the shore. Between this wind and some tropical activity (more on that in a moment), we have higher waves near the shore. They are up to about 3-4ft. Unfortunately, this is creating a high threat for rip currents.

We also have small craft advisories for local boaters.

Tomorrow we’ll have a similar setup. High pressure will lie to the north. We’ll have an east/northeast breeze. There will be some more scattered showers and drizzle coming in off of the ocean, but tomorrow I think we’ll have a little drier air gradually filtering in. So I’m hoping that the models are right, and we’ll see a little more sunshine and less rain by Tuesday afternoon. High temps will be near 80.

We’ll have more sunshine and less rain chances Wednesday and Thursday. High temps will be in the mid 80s. Then we’ll be drier Friday and Saturday. High temps will be in the mid-upper 80s.

There are two features in the tropics. The first one is a tropical disturbance that is meandering near a stationary front well offshore. It is a few hundred miles east of Florida.

Tropical Satellite

It has a high chance of formation, but it would likely stay out to sea. All of the models have it doing this. They have it moving northeast in a couple of days.

Meanwhile Tropical Storm Dorian is moving towards the Lesser Antilles from the central Atlantic. This will move over that region as a strong tropical storm late tonight into early tomorrow. Then the system will move northwest towards western Puerto Rico and/or the eastern Dominican Republic. Dorian could become a hurricane by that time.

Track Of Dorian

If it moves over land, then it will weaken. That is the more likely scenario. However, if it stays offshore or near the shore, then it could keep some strength as it moves to the other side of the island. The forecast is then for Dorian to move towards the Bahamas and southeast Florida.

Track Of Dorian

It would probably restrengthen to a tropical storm, but that is not a given. This track closely follows the European model. It has it moving into eastern Florida, sitting for a day or two, then pushing back out to sea. Meanwhile the GFS model keeps the system very weak, and it has it going a little more west towards the Gulf Of Mexico. Remember, the GFS model had a major overhaul last year. They did run it privately parallel to the old GFS for a while. We’ll see how it fares for this tropical season.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

Copyright 2021 Nexstar Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

Twitter Module – WAVY Weather

Trending Stories

Don't Miss

***Don’t Miss Module Removal CSS***