As we went through the morning commute we had some scattered rain showers moving in from the west.

Rain Showers This Morning

Luckily it wasn’t too heavy for the bulk of the AM drive. I’m actually hoping that we get some downpours today. While we did drop out of drought mode on the U.S. drought monitor last week, we could easily go back to that level if we don’t get some decent rain soon.

U.S. Drought Monitor

I believe this will update later today. In terms of rainfall, we are down less than an inch for the month, but we are almost 9 inches below average for the year so far.

Today will be our best shot at getting rain for a while. Here’s the setup: We had high pressure moving offshore with a cool front to our west. There is an increasing south wind that is streaming moisture into our area. Dew points have risen into the 60s.

Regional Weather Map

We’ll have lots of clouds through the day. Though the sun may pop out a bit this afternoon. We had a push of moisture in the area this morning along with an upper level disturbance. This will continue to bring some more showers and a few storms up through midday.

Hi-Res Forecast (Midday)

Then going into the afternoon the models not only back off the rain, but they also pop out the sun. I do think there will at least be a few isolated to scattered showers and storms, but I do agree that the chance will drop. This is what our high resolution model shows:

Hi-Res Forecast (This Afternoon)

We’ll have an increasing south wind today. It will gust up to 25mph. This will push the high temps up to the mid 70s despite the rain and clouds.

Forecast Temps Today

The cold front will move through during the late evening. Then the winds will shift to out of the north. We’ll then dry out overnight. Low temps will drop to the 50s. We’ll have some fast drying tomorrow with a lighter north wind.

Muggy Meter

High temps will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Forecast Temps Tomorrow

We’ll then have some great weather this weekend. We’ll have dry conditions with high temps in the 70s both days. There will be a little bit of a moisture return on Monday, but not as much as today. We’ll be mostly cloudy with a few rain showers in the region. Then some much colder air will arrive by the middle of next week. High temps will probably be in the upper 50s for a day. I’ll talk more about that colder air in tomorrow’s weather blog.

Meanwhile tropical storm Karl put on the brakes this morning in terms of its motion. It didn’t look too healthy on satellite.

Karl On Satellite

High pressure will build to the north of the system. This will push it to the south. It is then forecast to make landfall around the southern part of the state of Vera Cruz by early Saturday.

Track Of Karl

They will have some strong gusty winds and heavy rain over that region. There will likely be some mudslides over the higher elevations.

There is also a weak tropical disturbance over in the eastern Atlantic. It has a low chance of formation for now. Even if it does, it will probably stay out to sea.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler