Blog: Rain Tapers Off Today. Possible Wintry Weather Early Thursday.

Weather Blog

This morning we had chilly rain showers across the region. The wind wasn’t too bad, and temps weren’t too cold. Still it made for a damp and chilly commute.

Rain This Morning

Today we have a warm front that is stalling out just to our south. It is very warm south of this front. Temps were in the 60s and 70s yesterday in the deep south. That led to some strong storms that produced a tornado near Birmingham, AL. We’ll be a little milder here today with highs in the 50s, but the front won’t move through.

There is a cold front to our west/southwest that will roll east. That will dry us out later today. There is also a weak area of low pressure to our west, but that is moving more to the northeast.

Regional Weather Map

So far we’ve picked up about 1 to 1.5″ of rain in the area. The showers this morning will taper off through the midday hours. Then we’ll be drier this afternoon. However, the clouds will likely hang tough for a while. I’m hopeful for some late-day clearing, but it may not arrive until the end of the day. We’ll have a light west breeze.

Tomorrow weak high pressure will slide through the area. We’ll be partly cloudy with maybe a stray shower or two in the region. High temps will be in the 50s.

Wednesday night into Thursday morning has become interesting, tricky, and frustrating. As per usual the models are split as to whether we see snow, a wintry mix, or just some cold rain showers. The pattern is set, but the minor details are creating the tough forecast. The overall pattern will be that an upper level trough will quickly scoot to the east over our region. At the surface an area of low pressure will pass to our south along a stationary front. It will strengthen offshore, but the rapid strengthening shouldn’t happen until it gets pretty far out to sea. It will interact with some colder air. So as the system moves out to sea early Thursday morning. It is possible that we’ll have a changeover to some snow.

As mentioned the models are handling the features differently. (As of this morning) our Future Trak model (which is currently running the RPM model) has very little snow from Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Future Trak (Early Thursday Morning)
Future Trak (7am Thursday)

As you can see it does have some pockets of a mix or some light snow. However, it barely has any accumulations.

Future Trak (Snow Forecast)

The European model has a mix and then some scattered/light snow showers.

European Model (Thursday Morning)

It has very light amounts of snow.

4 Models (Snow Forecast)

The NAM doesn’t have much, and the higher resolution NAM (not shown) has even less.

Meanwhile the GFS has become very bullish on rain and snow. It has the highest amounts of both.

GFS Model (Thursday Morning)
GFS Model (Snow Forecast)

I think the GFS is bit overdone. It has bounced around a bit on its solution over the past couple of days. However, it is worth noting that many of its ensembles now show snow. I think our model is underdone. So I’m currently leaning on some of the middle-ground models. I think we’ll have that mix turn into some scattered snow showers like many of the models show. For now I’m calling for about a quarter to 3-quarters of an inch of snow on some grassy areas and decks. A few areas could see an inch. I think if it were colder then a lot of the snow would stick. However, the ground temps are above freezing, and the air temps should be just above freezing until about 7am. That’s based off of the latest models. So there is still lots of time for this forecast to change. If the temps drop a couple more degrees, then we might be looking at a bolder GFS forecast. If it’s 2 degrees the other way, then it will be more like the latest Future Trak. Regardless, the high temps on Thursday will rise to near 40 degrees. Plus, the sun should come out. That will melt any light amounts of snow on the ground if it does stick. If you are from this area, then you know that this is a very typical setup for us this time of year. So stay tuned for those ever-changing updates through the day.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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