Before I even start talking about the forecast, I have to talk about the elephant in the room…last night’s weather. Where did those storms come from? Firstly, I did have some isolated showers and storms in the forecast. So it wasn’t a complete bust.
However, the coverage was much higher than anticipated. Here was the view on the satellite radar around 9:30 in the evening:
The models actually did a good job with the storms up until about 7 p.m. They increased in coverage and moved west as forecast. However, a sizable outflow boundary caused the storms to back-build. So they then headed east instead of continuing west. An outflow boundary is a small feature that is like a super-mini cold front. It can trigger more storms along it’s edge as it spreads out. These features are too small for computer models to forecast. So that’s why most models missed the eastward jog.
The overall pattern hasn’t changed much since yesterday. High pressure is to our southeast.
The deep southerly flow continues to pump in more moisture and warm temperatures. We do have some more clouds than yesterday. Today we’ll be partly to mostly cloudy. There will be some isolated showers this morning, but scattered showers and storms will form this afternoon as the instability grows. There will be a few areas of heavy rain again.
High temps will be in the upper 80s to near 90, but the heat index will be in the mid-upper 90s. Even around 100 in some inland locations. Winds will be light and out of the south.
We’ll see similar weather tomorrow. Highs will be around 90. We’ll have a mix of sun and clouds with some scattered showers and storms developing through the day. The heat index will be in the upper 90s to near 100.
The forecast is pretty similar on Sunday, but a cool front should move in later in the day. High temps will be in the 80s. We’ll have more scattered showers and a few storms. The new update is that the models are starting to stall out the cool front on Monday. If that were to happen, then we wouldn’t cool down much, and the drier air would stay to our north. We’ll have some scattered thunderstorms if the front hangs out. We should still cool down a little Monday through Wednesday, but I don’t think it will be too dramatic. We’ll see.
Before I go…there is some U.S. news that I wanted to share with you. Parts of Alaska are now going through a big heat wave. In fact yesterday Anchorage hit 90 degrees which was by far a record. Last month was the warmest June on record for the state. This was caused by a high pressure system parked near the region. Here is the article with more information: Record Alaska heat.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler