Yesterday was just as nice as expected with one exception. It was partly sunny over some areas instead of mostly sunny everywhere. High temps were in the low-mid 80s with a lot of dry air. (That verified). So today will start a trend of warming and increasing humidity. We have a cool front to the south that is stalling out. High pressure is to the northeast. A warm front is to our northwest.
Yesterday we had a steady northeast wind, but today it will be light and out of the south. This will gradually increase the humidity. Dew points will rise from the low-mid 60s this morning to the upper 60s this afternoon. This still won’t be too bad, but it will be noticeably more humid than yesterday. Temps will also increase a bit. High temps will aim for the mid-upper 80s later today.
Meanwhile the extreme heat is still going for most of the central U.S.
Locally we will have a mix of sun and clouds today. There is a weak trough (dip in the jetsream) overhead. Plus, there is some overunning over our region. This is going to allow for some isolated showers to form and drop to the south. It will still be moderately dry at the surface. So any showers should be light and isolated. Our regular Future Trak model isn’t picking up on this very well, but the HRRR model is:
Overall, I think it will be a decent day, but definitely not as rosy as Wednesday. Tomorrow will not be decent. It will be very hot and humid. We’ll have a stronger southwest breeze, and we’ll be partly cloudy for a while. There will only be some isolated showers or storms. That setup will allow temps to heat up into the low-mid 90s during the afternoon.
They will get some heat relief in the Midwest, but that is the same heat that is sliding into our region. The heat index will be near or over 100 degrees.
The chance for rain is low, but some isolated showers or storms could pop up in the afternoon or evening. There’s a little better chance for rain by the late evening.
On Saturday a cool front will move into the area, but it is forecast to stall out on top of us briefly. High temps will be close to 90. The heat index will be in the mid-upper 90s. There will be a few showers and storms, but the chance is not big. We’ll cool down a little more on Sunday. High temps will run more in the mid 80s. It will stay humid though. There will be some more scattered showers and a few storms. The cool front will stay in the region early next week. That will keep the high temps in the 80s, but it will also bring us an increased chance for rain. That could be a bummer for the kids that are heading back to school on Monday. We’ll see.
We are watching several areas in the Atlantic basin. At the time of this writing there was only one named system. However, the remnants of Emily have a high chance of re-forming.
Tropical storm Franklin did cross the Dominican Republic yesterday. It caused a lot of flooding and mudslides, and it even has caused at least one death on the island. Now it is restrengthening and moving away from the island. There may be a notch forming on the south/southeast side of the storm.
This could be a sign that it is gradually developing an eye. If that happens then the short-term (and long term) forecast will increase in strength.
The system will move northeast and then north. It will wiggle it’s way northward over very warm water.
Franklin could still pass pretty close to Bermuda. The most likely path is a little to the west of Bermuda, but they are in the possible path.
The models favor a track that is a bit to the west of Bermuda, but a couple do send it to closer to the U.S. east coast.
Either way it will likely bring us some higher waves from late Sunday into early next week. There may be a high threat for rip currents for a couple of days. Stay tuned for updates.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler