See update about the tropics below.
Yesterday we had some excellent weather across the region. It was dry and mild as forecast. Today will be dry and a little bit warmer. We’ll still have a lot of sunshine as high pressure stays in control of the weather.
The high pressure zone has shifted east a bit. So we’ve lost the cool northeast breeze. It will be replaced with a light east/southeast wind today. High temps will be in the mid-upper 80s. The dew points are in the mid 60s. Which is pretty good for this time of year. A cool front has pushed far south of our region. This is stalling out with an area of low pressure south of it over the Gulf of Mexico. (More on that in a moment).
Locally, we will have great weather today. However, things will change quickly over the next 24 hours. Tomorrow we’ll have more of a southerly wind. We will heat up, and the humidity will rise quite a bit. High temps will aim for the low 90s, but the increasing humidity will make it feel like the mid-upper 90s.
We’ll also have a few showers and storms develop in the afternoon. They should be scattered between the afternoon and early evening. However, the models are showing a big cluster of showers and storms coming in from central Virginia between 8 and 11pm.
We’ll have a few more showers and storms possible on Friday. Though the timing is hard to pin down. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy. It will be very hot and humid Friday with highs in the low-mid 90s. The heat index will be near 100. We’ll cool down slightly on Saturday with partly cloudy skies. There will be some showers and storms just to our south. Then we’ll be partly cloudy and hot and humid on Sunday.
We are watching the eastern Gulf of Mexico for a system that is likely to form. A weak area of low pressure moved over the water last night, and this morning it was showing signs of strengthening.
The low is likely to turn into a tropical depression either later today or tomorrow.
Update: The low is now deemed “potential tropical cyclone #2”. The forecast track from the National Hurricane Center has it making landfall as a category 1 hurricane by the weekend.
The models still have it heading generally westward tomorrow into the weekend. It may ride along the coast, or it could be a little south of the coast (like the European model shows). Either way it will likely bring some heavy downpours to areas along the coast. Stay tuned for updates.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler