We are going to have one more warm/hot day before the bottom drops out. It was definitely warm yesterday. In fact, it felt pretty hot doing the yard work as temps were in the 80s and dew points were in the 60s.

High Temps Yesterday

Today we will be in the warm zone again. High pressure is offshore. A warm front is to our north with a cold front to the west.

Regional Weather Map

We’ll have a mix of sun and clouds today with a southwest breeze. The wind will run at 10-15mph with gusts up to 20mph. This will push our high temps up to the mid-upper 80s.

Forecast Temps Today

There shouldn’t be much rain during the day. An isolated shower or storm may pop late in the afternoon into the early evening, but overall we’ll have a quiet day. By late this evening into the overnight there will be a broken line of showers and thunderstorms.

Future Trak (This Evening)

Our Future Trak model slowed down the arrival of the rain in this morning’s update. I think there will be a few showers and storms between 6pm and 9pm. Then a bigger area of showers will move in between 9pm and 1am.

Future Trak (Late Tonight)

There has been a lot of severe weather to our west in the last 24 hours.

24 Hour Storm Reports

There were even some more report of tornadoes. Meanwhile blizzard conditions have affected the northern Plains.

As the system moves east it won’t be as strong as it was to our west. This is due partly because the strong low pressure area over the Midwest is moving more north than east. Also we’ll lose some heating of the day as our storms will arrive after dark. Having said that… There will be enough moisture and instability to create a few strong storms. Heavy rain and strong/gusty winds will be the main threats.

Storm Impacts

The cold front will sink to our south through early tomorrow morning. There will be scattered rain showers during the morning commute.

Future Trak (Friday Morning)

Even though the front will sit to our south tomorrow. Warm and humid air will push up (overunning) north over the cooler air mass. This means that we’ll have a bigger area of rain returning during the afternoon and evening.

Future Trak (Friday Afternoon)

We’ll be cloudy all day with a wind out of the northeast at 10-15mph with gusts to 25mph. So high temps will only rise to the low-mid 50s.

Forecast Temps Tomorrow

Yep! That will be a huge crash from today. The cooler pattern will continue into Saturday with a cool wind off of the ocean.

Forecast Map Friday and Saturday

The chilly maritime air will be here all day Saturday with high temps only in the 50s again. There will also be more on and off rain showers.

Future Trak Saturday

We should get a good amount of rainfall in the region before it wraps up on Sunday. The models are calling for about an inch to an inch and a half with some higher amounts possible.

Quad Box

This will be good. It will wash out the pollen for a little while. Plus, several parts of the region are in a moderate drought.

Drought Monitor

I’m still hopeful that the pattern will break down on Sunday, but I’m still cautiously optimistic. For now I have an isolated shower in the morning with some clearing through the day. High temps will only be in the upper 50s though.

I keep saying the term “cautiously optimistic” because years ago these types of patterns would always last 2-4 days longer than the models would forecast. That was common. I haven’t seen this strong of an easterly/cool fetch pattern in a while. I’ve even seen it bring us high temps in the 50s in May before. So we’ll see what happens. At least the models are in fair agreement on a drier Easter Sunday.

If the weather goes as planned, then we should have nice weather early next week with fair skies and highs in the 60s.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler