We are going to have some very active weather over the next 3 days. There are 3 fronts (that are basically connected) that will create up-and-down temperatures along with rain and storms during that time. Here are the fronts this morning:
Today the cold front is dropping south into our region. There is also an area of low pressure to the west. That will come through tomorrow after the warm front. Then the stronger cold front will move in by tomorrow night.
Today with that first front we will have scattered rain showers and dropping temps. We were in the 60s this morning. We’ll be in the upper 40s to low 50s this afternoon.
There might be a lull in the rain this morning for a while. However, the showers are forecast to pick up later today.
I don’t think we’ll have any thunderstorms today. The showers will be scattered. They’ll should be light to moderate with a pocket or two of heavy. Winds are out of the southwest this morning, but they’ll turn to out of the northeast through the day.
By tomorrow morning the warm front will lift north. Temps will bottom out in the mid-upper 40s overnight, but they will rise to the 50s by sunrise. The front may either move slowly or stall for a time around midday tomorrow. This could by why our Future Trak model has some heavy rain and thunderstorms during that time.
The front will lift north through the day. We will warm up despite lots of clouds and occasional rain showers. High temps will rise to the upper 60s. There may be a couple of 70s inland/south. Humidity will also rise. Winds will be gusting out of the south/southwest at 25mph outside of any storms. We’ll have more rain and storms forming between the late afternoon and evening. Rain may become heavy again.
We’ll have more rain and storms Thursday evening into the overnight. This could be our highest chance for severe weather. We do have a slight risk for parts of the region. This is from the Southside into North Carolina. We have a marginal risk form the Peninsula northward.
Keep in mind that this severe forecast (from the Storm Prediction Center) may change before tomorrow. The main threat will be strong gusty winds. However, isolated tornadoes will be possible. There won’t be a lot of instability, but there will be some strong upper level winds that will promote strong storm formation.
The models forecast the rain to continue Thursday night into Friday morning. Our model actually has more heavy rain through that time.
The front will move through the area by the morning. Then we’ll have a drying westerly wind through the rest of the day. Rain will move move out, and then we’ll dry out by Friday afternoon. High temps will be in the upper 50s to near 60. We’ll be dry on Saturday with much cooler air. Highs will be in the upper 40s. We’ll have a few more showers Saturday night into Sunday morning, but that shouldn’t be much.
The rain between today and Friday could add up to about 2-3″ with some locations possibly getting 4 or more.
This could lead to some flooding of low lying areas. Street flooding will be possible for either the Thursday evening commute or possible the Friday morning commute. It won’t be purely tidal, but if the tide is up, then that might stop the heavy rain from draining properly.
There’s a lot of details here in this blog. Some of the timing and placement of these features may change before tomorrow and Friday. So check back for updates!
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler