Coming off of the weekend we had some very early morning showers. They were light, but it was heavy for a time over part of northeast North Carolina.
A weak area of low pressure was moving northeast along a stationary front causing the precipitation. This has now moved out over the ocean, and it has taken all the rain with it.
High pressure will build in a little from the northwest. We’ll have fair skies today and quiet weather. Surface winds will run out of the northeast at 5-15mph. This will keep the temps down a little this afternoon. Highs will be in the low 50s with some mid 50s inland/south.
Tomorrow a warm front will lift into the region. We’ll warm up nicely into the mid-upper 60s. However, we’ll have quite a bit of clouds and some isolated showers late in the day. All-in-all I would say tomorrow will be pretty decent. A cold front will move in tomorrow night. This will increase the rain chances through the region.
We will be warm enough that this will be all rain. The showers will continue into Wednesday morning. Then we’ll dry out Wednesday afternoon. High temps will be in the upper 40s. We’ll be mostly cloudy through the day. Then there’s Thursday…
Depending on which model you believe on Thursday we could either be partly cloudy or cloudy with rain showers moving in. Before I get to the models, let me talk about the overall pattern. There will be an unusually large/strong area of high pressure over about 80% of the country. Actually they happen occasionally this time of year, but I haven’t seen one like this in a while. Years? Anyway, at the same time an area of low pressure will form around northern Florida and southern Georgia. The low should strengthen as it moves northeast (but well offshore). This will push some moisture up into our region. An upper level impulse will also drop in from the north at the same time. The European model is very bullish on precip. So it has scattered showers forming on Thursday with a large area of a wintry mix and some snow by Thursday night. It basically has a stronger low and more moisture.
It pushes out the precip by about 5am Friday morning. The Canadian model also has this scenario, but I only use that model as an extra opinion. Both of those could produce accumulating snow. However, the GFS model is much drier for the whole scenario. It has a weaker low, and it has less moisture. So it only has a small area of mix over the Outer Banks late Thursday night.
So far the NAM is running a drier scenario up to a point, but it is still a bit out of range time-wise. (I am writing this before the 12Z model comes in).
It’s entirely possible to get a wintry mix or even just some snow in the region. It is mid Feburary after all. However, water temps are in the 40s and ground temps will be above freezing. So these will have to be overcome. Either way all of the models have us dry and cold on Friday during the day. A lot of details will come together over the next few days. Stay tuned for updates.
In U.S. News…There has been some historic flooding over parts of the Mississippi River. I used to live in Jackson Mississippi, and I loved that area. They currently have had to evacuate some residents due to high water. Here is an article with more information: Mississippi River Flooding.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler