So far May has been cool overall. April was also cool. We had a few warm days, but temps have been running below average for most of the time.

May High Temperatures

I’ll admit… I have liked the high temps in the 70s, but I’d like to trade a few of the 60s for 80s. Going forward we are going to have more cool temps this week. Today won’t be too bad. It should be pretty nice out. We will have lots of sunshine. That will be enough to get the temperature going into the mid-upper 70s later today.

Temperature Forecast

However, there will be a northeast breeze. It will run at 5-15mph. So it will be cooler near the shore. There is a cold front stalling out to our south with high pressure edging in from the north.

Regional Weather Map

Tomorrow the high will strengthen to our north and the front will creep a little more north, but it will stay to our south. This will increase the pressure difference between the two systems (gradient). So winds will increase quite a bit out of the northeast. Winds will run at 10-15mph or even 10-20mph with gusts up to about 30mph. Also, clouds will increase. Skies will be partly cloudy. This will drop our temperatures even though no cold front will run through our region. Highs will only rise to the upper 60s to near 70.

Forecast Temps Tomorrow

We should stay dry, but a stray shower or sprinkle can’t be ruled out.

We’ll be dry and cool then for Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

By Friday an area of low pressure may be creeping north up the east coast. (Kind of like last weekend). This could bring us some scattered showers at times next weekend. This is not good. It’s Memorial Day Weekend, and usually we at least have warm temps. It looks like we might warm up to the upper 70s on Sunday, but I think we’ll only be in the low-mid 70s on Friday and Saturday. I know a lot of people are making plans already. The rain forecast is NOT set in stone yet. For now I have a few spotty showers on Friday with a higher chance over the Outer Banks. Then I have mostly cloudy skies with scattered rain showers on Saturday. I only have a few showers Sunday with drying conditions through the day. This is highly apt to change. So that’s about as specific as I want to get for now. Let’s hope the forecast dries up a bit before we get there. I’ll have a more specific, and hopefully a more confident forecast tomorrow.

But before I go… There is a weak tropical disturbance that we are tracking in the Atlantic. It is a bit east of the Bahamas, and it is drifting north/northeast.

Tropical Outlook

This feature has a low chance of formation over the next couple of days, but some models do have it becoming at least a depression. We’ll see. I think it has a high chance of staying offshore either way. This will actually be the second system of the season if it forms. Yes! Surprisingly, there was already a system that formed in January. The National Hurricane Center went back and studied the feature and claimed that it had indeed become subtropical. They didn’t give it a name, but it is considered the first system. So the next system to form will be called tropical depression 2. If it gets a name, then it will be called Arlene. Here is a document that explains what happened: NHC 1st system of 2023.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler