Over the next 3 days we are going to be dry and chilly. A cold front has dropped to our south since yesterday. Plus, a northerly wind shift moved into the area since last night. We have strong high pressure to the northwest with an area of low pressure far to the northeast.

Regional Weather Map

The wind will stay up out of the north today at 10-15mph with gusts up to 20mph, and colder air will keep dropping south. So temperatures will struggle to climb much. Highs will only be in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees this afternoon.

Forecast Temps Today

High pressure will build in a little more tomorrow, and the front will be farther to the south. So there will still be a north wind, but it won’t be as strong (10mph). We’ll start off colder with lows in the 30s in the morning. Then during the afternoon we’ll be only be in the mid-upper 40s. We’ll be mostly sunny.

We are in what’s called meteorological Winter. That is a term that I’m actually not too fond of as I think it just creates confusion. However, it does serve a purpose. Meteorologists lump the seasons into 3 months each so that it is easier to average out the values like temperature and rainfall.

Meteorological Winter

The average high temperature for this time of year is in the mid 50s. We’ll stay below average through Wednesday.

Temperature Trend

By Wednesday night the moisture in the region will ramp up ahead of an area of low pressure. At first we’ll have a few rain showers. Then a big area of rain will slide in from the west by Thursday morning.

GFS Model Thursday

We’ll warm up a bit into the 50s, but it will likely be wet. The rain should move out by Friday.

There is still some high waves and rough surf along the oceanfront from that offshore low. Some of the near-shore waves will be running at about 5-8ft with a few 10 footers possible along the Outer Banks.

Avon Pier, OBX (Surfchex.com)

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler