Blog: Sun Is Back Today. Cold Rain & Wintry Mix For Friday.

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We really need some sunshine right now. Yesterday, I felt like we were robbed of it, but we’ll have a good amount of sunshine today. There was a cool shot on our tower cam this morning. At one point it looked like a sunshine waterfall was pouring over the cloud deck.

Sun On Tower Cam This Morning

So we will have a lot of sunshine today with a few coastal clouds. High temps will be in the upper 40s, and we’ll have a light northwest wind. High pressure is over the region.

Regional Weather Map

I am tracking an area of low pressure over towards the Tennessee River Valley. This morning it had a lot of rain and wintry mix around it. It was moving steadily to the east. Maybe a bit southeast. The overall pattern for the next 48 hours is pretty set. The area of low pressure will pass to our south. There will be a lot of rain in our region, but it could start and end as a wintry mix. Snow is much more likely to fall to our west.

Friday’s Forecast Map

The problem is that the models are still in pretty big disagreement as to the finer details. They differ on exactly how far south the low will pass, how much moisture will push northward, and how soon the cold air will drop in. So let’s dive in.

The GFS model has the low about 100-200 miles south of the Outer Banks tomorrow, but the Euro is pretty close to Hatteras. The NAM also has it close to Hatteras, but it has colder air overall. At least that is how they looked this morning. So the GFS model still has a wintry mix in the morning.

GFS Model Friday Morning

Then it has cold rain for the bulk of the day. It then has a mix dropping to the south Friday night. Maybe even ending as a pop of snow (briefly) early Saturday morning.

GFS Model Early Saturday Morning

The Euro is mostly wet. It has mainly rain for the region, and it basically has no accumulating snow in our region. It does have some off to our west.

Euro Model Friday

The NAM has been all over the place. At one point yesterday it had an area of 8″ over a small spot in the region. Today it doesn’t nearly have that much, but it does have the most out of the models. This is the 6Z (overnight) run of the model’s snowfall forecast.

Snow Forecast (NAM Model)

Our Future Trak model has very little mix, and almost no snow. Kind of like the Euro. I thought it might flip over today, but it hasn’t yet. Here is what it looks like during the day tomorrow and in the evening.

Future Trak (Friday Afternoon)
Future Trak (Friday Evening)

I do think there will be a mix and more precip northward than our model shows. When moisture gets pushed northward sometimes it creates a (thin) saturated layer. You don’t need a lot of lift to produce wintry weather unlike thunderstorms. So the models may be having a tough time at forecasting that feature. Either way no model is putting down large amounts of snow. Here are 4 model solutions for the next 48 hours:

Snowfall (4 Forecast Models)

I put together a snow forecast map this morning, but I literally put the words “Low Confidence” on the map:

Snow Forecast

I think there will be a mix and perhaps some snow in some spotty areas. There could be some “snow islands” that form on a few grassy surfaces/decks, but I don’t see anything on a large scale. Remember surface temps will be in the 40s during the day, and probably above freezing in the overnight (mid 30s). The ground will still be fairly mild, and it will likely be wet. So the only way to overcome that is for heavy snow to fall. I’m not sure what the NAM model has been picking up on, but it bears watching. For now though I’ll say that this looks like a minor or non-event. The weekend also still looks fairly dry other than some possible precip early Saturday morning. The models should have a better handle on things by this afternoon. Maybe even by midday. So stay tuned for updates later today.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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