It is tough coming off of a holiday weekend, and waking up to a chance for strong thunderstorms. But that is what we have happening today. There is a large area of low pressure just off to our west. It is moving north today. There is also a warm front that is pushing to our north.
There is a strong cold front to our west, but it won’t move into our region until later this afternoon. We had some heavy rain this morning as the warm front entered the region.
There may be a lull in activity from the mid morning until noon. Then as the cold front gets a little closer we’ll have a re-development of showers and storms.
There isn’t a ton of instability, but there is a good amount of wind shear (upper level winds that strengthen with height). This could be enough to create some strong to severe storms today. There is a slight risk for severe weather until the mid afternoon.
Strong gusty winds will be the main threat. However, an isolated tornado will be possible. The general winds will be strong between 10am and 4pm. So there is a Wind Advisory in effect for a large part of the area. Winds could gust between 35 and 40mph with a few higher gusts near the shore.
This could lead to some power outages.
Another effect from this will be what we call the Wind-Tide effect. It’s a phenomenon that’s developed over the last 5-10 years. When a strong persistent wind develops locally, then we get some flooding from the northern Albemarle Sound up into southern Virginia Beach. This is happening today, and it will create some minor flooding. It isn’t all from the wind, and it isn’t just from the tide. So hence the name. The rest of the area should be ok, but there will be more of that on the northern part of the Chesapeake Bay.
High temps will rise to the mid-upper 70s. This will be close to the record of 79 degrees (2001). The average high for this time of year is in the upper 50s. Tomorrow we’ll have a temperature correction. Highs will only be in the low 50s. We’ll be partly cloudy. A strong upper level low will drift overhead. So I can’t rule out a stray shower or two. Then we’ll be cold and dry on Wednesday. High temps will only be in the upper 40s. We’ll be mostly sunny. Temps will rise to the 50s and then 60s Thursday into Friday. However, we’ll have some more scattered showers on Friday.
Today is the last official day of hurricane season. We just wrapped up a record year. I was so busy with the local weather that I didn’t have time to talk about it. There is a weak tropical disturbance in the eastern Atlantic. It has a moderate chance of becoming a subtropical system. Regardless of formation it would have no impact here, but it would still get added to this season’s numbers.
Stay tuned for updates throughout the day.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler