Today we have a warm front that is pushing up from the south. This warm front will pull up some warmer temperatures to parts of the region, but it will also be a focus for showers and storms later today.

Friday morning, the front was well to our south. It was moving steadily in our direction. A big area of low pressure was over Tennessee, and it was moving slowly east. This will control our weather this weekend.

Regional Weather Map

We started off with partly cloudy skies and temps in the 50s. it was pretty nice out. As we go through the day we’ll warm up even before the front gets here. We’ll have a light southeast wind with increasing clouds. High temps will be mixed as the front stalls out. Here is what our model is calling for:

Today’s Forecast Temps

I’ve got milder temps near the shore, but I agree with the 60s on the Eastern Shore and 80s inland.

Today’s Forecast

There will be a few showers and isolated thunderstorms from the late morning into the afternoon. Then a few more storms will fire up by the mid-afternoon.

Future Trak (This Afternoon)

The chance for rain and storms will increase by the evening. That’s when we have an even higher chance for strong to severe storms.

Future Trak (This Evening)

This is the HRRR model (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) for this evening.

HRRR Model This Evening
Severe Risk

As of this writing we have an enhanced risk for severe weather for a large part of the region. There will be a good amount of instability near and south of the front. Plus, there will be some wind shear today. However, if the clouds thicken up fast, then that might limit the instability a little bit. There is a lot of moisture in the area already, and it will be even thicker as the front arrives. So heavy rain and strong winds will be the main threats. However, some hail and isolated tornadoes will be possible.

Storm Impacts

Storms will taper off later tonight. They will turn into some spotty showers. Tomorrow the low will be slowly sliding over us. We may have some brief clearing tomorrow morning, but then we’ll have a lot of clouds for the rest of the day. It won’t be a washout, but there will be scattered rain showers on-and-off through the day.

Future Trak (Saturday)

Some models have more rain than others. The GFS is wet almost all day.

GFS Model (Saturday)

The Euro is in-between Future Trak and the GFS. Either way there is a decent shot at rain tomorrow. It will be cooler with highs in the upper 60s. Temps may drop in the afternoon to the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds will pick up out of the north.

The wind will be stronger and out of the northeast on Sunday. This as the area of low pressure slides offshore.

Euro Model Sunday

Winds could gust to 35mph near the shore. Plus, we’ll have a lot of rain as moisture wraps in on the back side. The clouds and wind (and rain) will keep the temps down. Highs will only be in the upper 50s. That will be well below the average (mid 70s).

The low will sit offshore early next week. It will throw some more moisture our way on Monday. We’ll have a few showers, but the wind will still be strong. The persistent northeast will will lead to some tidal flooding. This will start up Sunday evening, and it will go into Monday and possibly into Tuesday.

Tidal Forecast

Luckily we are not in a moon phase that naturally creates much flooding. There will also be some higher waves that could create some beach erosion over the Outer Banks.

The big silver lining in all of this is that we REALLY need some rain.

U.S. Drought Monitor

I think we could see 1-2 inches of rainfall before it is all said and done. A few lucky places may see more.

Rainfall Forecast

It will be spread out through time. So I don’t think the rain will cause too much flooding by itself. However, it could be tough to drain during the higher tides.

We’ll have a lot more detail on all of this over the weekend. So stay tuned for updates!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler