I’ll admit…Yesterday’s forecast was a curve ball, and I missed…Mostly! It was hot and humid as expected. High temps were in the 90s. However, the showers and storms that tried to move in during the day evaporated. Literally! Here is a look at the mid afternoon satellite/radar yesterday:
There is a saying in weather: “When in drought, keep it out!”. That refers to rain chances during a drought. If you are in doubt about rain, then you typically lean on a drier forecast or you take out the chance altogether. However, there were two things that threw me. A. There was enough moisture for fog in the morning, and B. several different models shows scattered storms moving in from the west during the day. The showers and storms that moved in fell apart as the very parched ground likely absorbed some of the humidity. Plus, the relative humidity near the surface dropped fast as temperatures shot up in the morning. So skies ended up clearing, and high temperatures ended up amping up to the mid-upper 90s.
There were some isolated showers last night and even some downpours over Accomack county early this morning, but that was it.
Today we still have a bit of a tricky forecast, but hopefully not as much of a curve ball like yesterday. A wind shift is dropping down from the north this morning. It will pass to our south today giving us a light north/northeast breeze.
I wouldn’t call it a cool front because it is still going to be fairly hot and humid. Just not a bad as yesterday. High temps will run in the upper 80s with 90s inland. It will feel like the low-mid 90s with the heat index. We’ll be partly cloudy with some isolated showers and storms popping up. The chance for rain though is only 20%.
Tomorrow the actual cold front will drop down into the area, but it looks like it will stall out just north of the metro. Temps will be split with some 70s towards the Northern Neck and upper 80s to near 90 south. With the front stalling out, we’ll have some scattered showers and storms in the region. There will be a few showers in the morning with a better chance for rain later in the day.
Around the evening our Future Trak model has a line of showers and storms as the front finally makes a move to the south.
This will be the best chance for rain in the next 36 hours. After that the front will very slowly sink southward through Saturday. A weak area of low pressure may move along the front, and that could briefly stall it out again. So we’ll have some on and off showers through the day.
There will probably a few thunderstorms as well, but hopefully they will be limited. We’ll have a lot of clouds, and high temps will be near 80 degrees. The front will sink more to the south on Sunday. However, it won’t move too far away. So we’ll still have some scattered showers during the day. Some models suggest that we’ll only have highs in the upper 60s. I’m calling for 70 for now. There is a higher confidence in a dry Monday. Highs will be in the 70s.
We’ll see if we get enough rain to stop us from having the driest May on record. I just wish it wasn’t coming in on Memorial Day Weekend.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler