Keep in mind that when I write this blog about the colder shots of air, that I am not actually complaining. With that said…
We have our first shot of cooler/drier air that has moved into the region today. A cold front was far moving farther offshore. High pressure is building in from the west.
As the high pushed southeast this morning our local winds were steady out of the northeast. They will run at 5-15mph, but some of the coastal winds were up to 20mph this morning. They should taper off through the day.
We will have a lot of sunshine, and it will be very dry outside. Dew points will be in the 30s and 40s this afternoon. However, we will be cooler compared to yesterday. High temps will be near 60 this afternoon. It should be pretty nice in the sun if you can get out of the breeze. Tomorrow will be great! We’ll have partly cloudy skies with a light southwest wind. High temps will be in the upper 60s to near 70.
However, by Thursday night a strong cold front will move towards the region. Some rain will move into the area ahead of the front. This will be our next/bigger shot of colder air. The front will drop to our south by Friday morning. There will be a few showers early, but then we’ll dry out for the rest of the day.
The wind will be strong from the north. It could gust up to 20-30mph. (I’ll refine that tomorrow). This will keep the temps down in the 40s through the day. Even in the afternoon. Low temps will be in the 30s by Saturday morning with possibly some 20s inland. This could be our first frost near the shore. Then we’ll only warm to near 50 on Saturday with fair skies. We’ll warm to the 60s on Sunday with dry conditions. Monday still looks mild and dry for Veterans day.
Tuesday’s forecast looks tricky. I don’t want to get too detailed, but basically the GFS has rain developing later in the day as an area of low pressure forms offshore. It has snow to our northwest. However, the European model has some brief showers late Tuesday as a cold front moves in, and that’s about it. It has the low much farther offshore, and it only has a few showers along a cold front. However, the models have been too variable with this time frame-frame. So for now, it just will be something to watch.
Before I go… I looked up some numbers from the National Weather Service this morning to find out the first time we hit (40s) in the Fall season.
In 2018 it was November 11th (48 degrees)
In 2017 it was the same….November 11th (43 degrees)
The interesting one was 2016. In that year, (if I read the numbers right), we didn’t hit the 40s until early December (December 4th, 49 degrees).
So this colder air is about on time. Maybe just a bit early. What does that mean for the rest of the Fall? Well, sometimes these cold blasts are too early. So we end up warming up for a while after a brief cold period. That’s what I think will happen, but we’ll see.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler