Blog: Regional Temps Heating Up. Offshore System This Weekend.

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Temperature Trend

We are definitely going to heat things up today. Yesterday we warmed up to near 80 degrees, and that was with lots of clouds for the first half of the day. Today we will have a lot of sunshine from start to finish. So we’ll warm up even more. We have an area of high pressure just offshore. There is also a warm front to our north.

Regional Weather Map

The closest cold front is over Illinois, and that won’t affect us until we get to Sunday. We are deep into the warm zone today. High temps will rise to the upper 80s with a couple of 90s inland. The humidity is rising, but it’s not too bad just yet. Dew points are in the upper 50s. It will hit 60 in a few places today. However, it probably won’t feel too humid as the winds will be strong out of the southwest. They will run at 10-15mph with gusts up to 25mph. Water temps are in the lower 60s on the Bay, and they are in the upper 50s to low 60s over the ocean. They are more in the upper 60s towards the southern Outer Banks. Keep that in mind if you are going to do some boating, fishing, or surfing. Plus, that will keep it a little cooler on the Eastern Shore.

Tomorrow we’ll be partly cloudy. We’ll still be warm with more high temps in the upper 80s. We’ll definitely hit 90 in a few areas. Winds will be out of the southwest. Plus, the humidity will go up a little more. So it will be a bit muggy. With the extra humidity there might be some isolated showers and storms later in the afternoon. They may increase a bit more by the evening with some scattered showers and storms possible.

Future Trak Saturday Evening

We’ll have a mix of sun and clouds on Sunday with a few scattered showers and storms in the afternoon. A cool front will move in and stall out over the region. High temps will be in the upper 70s. We’ll be cooler with more clouds and lots of rain for the first half of next week. That will partly depend on the tropics.

Tropical Satellite

By tomorrow (or definitely by Sunday) there will be a system forming near the Bahamas. This is likely going to be a subtropical depression or storm. Remember, a subtropical system can have the storms spread out a little more away from the center of the storm. Also, it can interact with cooler air. It also doesn’t require as much ocean heat to keep going. Right now the potential energy for any tropical systems is very low.

Hurricane Heat Potential

So the models do have a system forming and moving generally north between Saturday and Sunday. Then they have the low turning morning to the northeast Sunday into Monday.

European Model

The European model keeps the storm safely offshore. However, it does bring some of the rain to the coast. Mainly over the Outer Banks. This scenario would bring some gusty winds to the coast, but it likely wouldn’t be too bad. It could cause a little minor tidal flooding. Possibly some nice surf. We’ll see. The GFS model does have the system a little closer than the Euro, but it does still keep it weak and offshore.

GFS VS Euro

A second area of low pressure will form over land. That will probably move in and bring us the bulk of the rain between Tuesday and Wednesday. These features are still pretty far out in time. The details are likely to change. So stay tuned for updates over the weekend.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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