Blog: Rain By Tonight. Extended Forecast Keeps Morphing!


Rain Tonight

The extended forecast has been tricky over the last few days, and it just got even more complicated. The short-term forecast isn’t too bad, but there are a couple of days ahead that are proving challenging for the models. Let’s take it step-by-step…

Today we have lots of clouds in the region. There have already been some isolated showers and sprinkles. Over the last couple of days the models had some isolated showers for later today, but typically you have to fast-forward the precip when you have an overunning situation. Which we have. High pressure is moving offshore, and the wind is increasing out of the south/southwest at all levels.

Regional Weather Map

There is an area of low pressure around Mississippi. This is going to quickly move north/northeast over the next 36 hours.

We’ll be mostly cloudy today with isolated showers at times. There will be a southwest wind at 8-12mph. High temps will warm up to the mid 60s this afternoon.

Temperatures Today

By tonight the moisture will increase even more. Rain showers will overtake the area as low pressure moves just to our west.

Future Trak (Tonight)

Rain could be briefly heavy between midnight and 5am. The low will already start moving to our north by tomorrow morning. We’ll have some rain showers through the early-mid morning.

Future Trak (Tomorrow Morning)

Temps will start off in the upper 50s early. Then a strong cold front will sweep through the area. This will lower the rain chances through the morning, and it will also drop temperatures to the low 50s. Winds will rev up out of the northwest at 10-20mph with gusts up to 35mph. We should dry out by noon, and then we’ll be dry, windy, and cool during the afternoon. The models have had a very hard time at trying to figure out when the clearing would happen. At least they are on the same page now. Plus, temps are much cooler Saturday than the previous forecasts.

We could see about a half an inch up to an inch and a half of rain before it ends. A couple of places could see up to 2″.

We’ll be cool and dry on Sunday with high temps near 50 degrees. Skies will be partly cloudy. However, the models are now showing a coastal low on Monday. They have the low staying offshore, but it looks close enough to get some scattered rain showers in our region.

GFS Model (Monday Afternoon)

It will be a chilly rain as high temps will be in the 40s. I didn’t mention this next part on-air, but there is a low chance that the precip could end as a brief/melting wintry mix late Monday night, or possibly as a couple of flurries. Even IF it were to happen, whatever falls would all melt. Plus, it’s still pretty far out in time, and the forecast could change (again). So stay tuned for updates to that extended forecast.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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