Blog: More Muggy By Mid-Week. Elsa Impacts By Late Week.


Yesterday we had great weather for the 4th of July. It may have been some of the best Independence Day weather we’ve had in years. We had fair skies. It was dry! It was warm/hot, but not too crazy. For those that have today off for the holiday we should have some more great weather, but there will be some slight differences. High pressure is in the region, but we’ll have more of a southwest wind today.

Regional Weather Map

So we’ll heat up a bit more. High temps will be near 90 with some low-mid 90s inland.

Forecast Temps Today

It will be in the upper 80s near the shore. Water temps are in the mid 70s at the beaches, but in the upper 70s to near 80 on the Chesapeake Bay. We’ll be mostly to partly sunny. There may be some isolated showers closer to I-95, but I’m keeping them out of the forecast here. Tomorrow we’ll be partly cloudy with highs in the low-mid 90s. Again, there may be some stray showers or storms in the whole region, but the chance for rain is low. (below 20%). Dew points will climb a bit tomorrow. So it will be hot and humid, but it will be the typical Summertime conditions.

By Wednesday it will just be flat-out hot and humid. High temps will rise to the mid 90s, but the heat index will likely be near 100. We’ll be partly cloudy with some isolated showers and storms in the afternoon.

By Thursday we’ll either be dealing with Elsa or the remnants of Elsa.

This morning Elsa was just south of the coast of Cuba. There were thunderstorms flaring up near the center and along some of the bands extending to the east/northeast.

Satellite/Radar Of Elsa

The storm will cross over land later today. There are some higher elevations on the island, and this could weaken the system. However, it won’t stay over land very long. So the consensus is that it won’t weaken much. The models have handled this differently over the last few days as the exact angle that Elsa moved along/over Cuba would make a big difference. Now that the track is more set, the models are starting to come together.

Track Of Elsa

The models take Elsa across Cuba, over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, then up into northern Florida. It’s possible that it could make landfall (even if briefly) near Tampa. However, landfall is more likely somewhere southwest of Gainesville. There will be some wind shear. So hopefully the storm doesn’t become a hurricane again before landfall, but it is a possibility. After that the storm is expected to move to the northeast. It will likely pick up some speed again as the upper level winds carry the storm. On that track it could head up this way as a tropical storm.

Track Of Elsa

The latest official trak and model consensus has it moving this way as a tropical storm.

Forecast Models

The are still a few models that push it out to sea. There are quite a few that have it going over land for a long time. However, there are also a couple which have the system falling apart. The Euro kind does show a weak low through our region, but it is fairly small. However, it does bring the heavy rain up our way.

European Model (Late Thursday)

The GFS is in line with this, but is a bit slower, and has the system pretty intact.

GFS Model (Thursday)

So I would plan on some rain in the region on Thursday. The question right now is will it also bring strong gusty winds to the region along with a low tornado threat. Or… Will it just be some heavy rain.

GFS Model (Rainfall Forecast)

We’ll have a better idea of that within the next 24 hours. So stay tuned for updates. Regardless, I don’t think we’ll have any big issues with tidal flooding.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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