Blog: Lots Of Cold Rain And Wintry Mix.


If you woke up and looked at the radar this morning, then you probably perked up very quickly. It appeared to show rain and snow all over the place.

Light Mixed Precip This Morning (And Virga)

However, there was a lot of dry air still in place at the surface as moisture began to push up into the region in the upper levels. So a lot of us just had clouds with a few sprinkles and flurries. For a while.

Cloudy Skies This Morning

By the mid-morning this turned into some drizzle with some sleet and wet snow flakes mixing-in. Low pressure is passing to our south with an upper level low moving overhead.

Regional Weather Map

The low will push moisture up into our region through the day. Eventually, the moisture will saturate the air and allow more light to moderate precip to fall. However, during that time temps will warm up enough to change the mix over to cold rain showers. There will probably be a mix for longer to the north/northwest of Hampton Roads.

Future Trak (Late Morning)

I believe that the precip will be a little more north than what Future Trak shows by the way.

Temps will only warm up a bit to the mid 40 this afternoon. It will probably only be near 40 between the Middle Peninsula, Northern Neck, and Accomack county. Winds will be out of the north/northeast at 10-15mph. So bundle up heading out because it is going to be wet, chilly, and breezy today. By the evening the low will start moving to the northeast (offshore). This will allow the winds to pick up out of the north at all levels. That will in-turn allow colder air to drop south. So the showers will probably turn into a wintry mix this evening.

Future Trak (This Evening)

This could even create a brief mix with some light snow showers late tonight in a few areas. However, the models dry us out before the freezing temps really arrive. Overnight temps will be in the 30s, but they probably won’t drop to the low 30s until around sunrise tomorrow. Most of the time they should stay above freezing. The ground temps are also well above freezing. So any mix or snow that falls should melt. It’s possible that a few areas could get enough snow to fall to put a light dusting on some grass and decks. Keep in mind that most of the forecast models are showing no snowfall in our area.

Forecast Snow Totals (4 Models)

However, the NAM is still showing some light amounts. Mostly inland/north. So with all of that said…here is my snow forecast for the next 12-24 hours. Notice it is mainly rain or a mix for the region, but there could be a dusting in places.

There may be a small pocket of that overnight near Elizabeth City and southern Chesapeake/Virginia Beach. Both Future Trak and the GFS model hint at that, but we’ll see.

We could see about a quarter to a half inch of rain with lesser amounts north of Hampton Roads. So flooding is not a concern.

High pressure will build in for the weekend. We’ll be partly cloudy with high temps in the 40s. We’ll be dry and cool on Monday, but then another low will bring some more rain to the region on Tuesday. There may be another wintry mix with that system in the evening, but we’ll see. I think we’ll be milder for most of next week, but then a big blast of cold air will move down by next weekend. Stay tuned for updates on that.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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