I’ll start with the tropics today. There is a weak disturbance over in the eastern Atlantic, but I won’t be tracking that today as it has a low chance of formation. Plus, it’s very far away. However, tropical storm Isaias officially formed last night, and that could impact the southeastern U.S. coast by the weekend. Currently, it’s impacting the island of Hispaniola.
This morning it looked like there might be two centers trying to compete for dominance. The farther eastern center may be taking over, but it’s hard to say for sure. Either way it is likely going to cross land over the Dominican Republic today. It could partially move over part of Haiti as well. The impacts shouldn’t be too bad. Some heavy rain and gusty winds, but not the widespread/destructive kind. The storm should weaken as it moves over land, but it is very tough to determine how weak the system will be on the other side. It is fairly broad, and it’s moving quickly northeast (about 20mph). So it may not weaken that much. We’ll see. That will determine the rest of the forecast. Officially, the National Hurricane Center has it moving northwest through parts of the Bahamas tomorrow into the weekend. After that point it turns north towards the east coast of Florida.
The track then moves north and northeast as the upper level ridge weakens a bit. This would bring it up closer to our region.
There is a lot of uncertainty in the track and the strength of this system. The models are bouncing around all over the place. The model consensus did shift east since yesterday. There are several that run it up this way near the Hatteras area or just offshore.
However, the latest NAM trended more west into Florida. A couple of days ago the GFS model had it over western Florida and fairly weak. Then last night it had it as a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane off the coast of Hatteras. The 6Z (overnight) run came in, and then ran it right along the Carolina coasts as a weak tropical depression. (A little uncertain maybe??) Meanwhile, the European model still has it pushing more west, and it keeps it very weak. It has consistently had it more west than most models. Here is the GFS/Euro comparison.
The model consensus did come up in strength in the long-term. It is possible that Isaias could become a hurricane at some point. The bottom line is that we need it to cross land before we can get a reasonable idea of what it is going to do in the long-term. So stay tuned for updates later today.
Meanwhile our local weather is fairly quiet today. We’ll have typical late-Summer weather. We have high pressure to the southeast. A stationary front is to our north, and it is drifting northward a bit.
We’ll be partly cloudy today. A few isolated showers and storms will try to pop-up this afternoon. High temps will be in the low-mid 90s, but the heat index will be in the upper 90s to near 100.
Tomorrow the front will sag south a bit. This will increase our rain chances later in the day. We could see some heavy downpours.
Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy. High temps will dip a bit into the upper 80s to low 90s, but it will still be humid. We’ll be near 90 on Saturday with a mix of sun and clouds along with scattered showers and storms. Then we’ll be partly cloudy on Sunday with a few pm storms. High temps will be in the low-mid 90s. The forecast for early next week will depend on the track of Isaias.
We’ve had a lot of heat here, but one world city has broken an impressive record. Recently Baghdad, Irag reached 125 degrees F. If it is verified, then it will have surpassed the all-time high there of 124 degrees F. Here is an article with more information: Baghdad record heat.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler